Denver Stiffs - 2021-22 Denver Nuggets Player Previews

Can Nikola Jokić defend his MVP crown?

2021-10-15T07:00:00-06:00

Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

We wrap up our player preview series with reigning MVP Nikola Jokić.

Nikola Jokić 2020-21 per game statistics

2020-21/		Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Field Goal %	Three-Point %	Box Plus-Minus
Regular Season	72	34.6	26.4	10.8	8.3	56.6	38.8	+11.7
Playoffs	10	34.5	29.8	11.6	5.0	50.9	37.7	+9.0

Overview

It was clear from the beginning of the 2020-21 season that Nikola Jokić was primed to do something special.

Jokić scored 29 points, grabbed 15 boards, and dished out 14 assists in the Denver Nuggets season opening loss to the Sacramento Kings. In the first six games of the season, Jokić accumulated four triple-doubles, missing out on six straight by just one rebound apiece. Rather than slow down after that, Jokić simply maintained incredible productivity, efficiency, and impact throughout the regular season. He played in all 72 games, outlasted other top players, and ultimately collected on the first (and hopefully not last) MVP award of his career at just 26 years old.

The Nuggets nearly caught up to Jokić’s individual greatness throughout the year. Jamal Murray started slow but quickly rounded into form. Michael Porter Jr. brushed aside the high expectations and ultimately became a borderline star running mate for Jokić and Murray in just his second season. Will Barton was playing a solid brand of basketball. The Nuggets had a solid mix on the bench unit. They acquired Aaron Gordon and looked to be the team to beat for a brief time. Then, injuries happened.

Jokić never slowed down his pace, his ability to carry the team, until the final moments of the postseason. The Nuggets were clearly outmatched by the Phoenix Suns without Murray (or Will Barton or P.J. Dozier at full health) and were swept in the second round of the playoffs as a result. It didn’t take away from Jokić’s greatness, but it did show that the superstar center needed more help than he received. The same could be said of every superstar on the way to a championship though.

Now, the stakes for the 2021-22 season are quite different. Jokić pushed hard for the MVP award when he knew it was within reach, playing in every game, helping Denver acquire a top 3 seed in the West even after Murray went down. The Nuggets went 14-4 in those games, and though Porter’s progression helped, Jokić was still the straw that stirred the drink at all times.

There’s a strong possibility that the Nuggets (and Jokić) play with the bigger picture in mind this time around. They want Jokić to be rested and healthy for a playoff run. Jokić wants that too. Pushing hard in the regular season with Murray already out many not be the best way to maximize championship odds anyway.

But one thing’s for certain: when Jokić is on the floor, he will dominate. Nobody can stop him but him.

Best Case

Perhaps different than any other player on the roster, the best case scenario for Jokić is one where he isn’t on the floor all of the time. The numbers and statistics that he accumulates would certainly push him closer to individual accolades, but that shouldn’t be what drives him this season.

Jokić’s best case scenario involves the development and excellence of his teammates around him. Rather than playing 35, 38, or even 40 minutes on a consistent basis, if the Nuggets can consistently win while Jokić’s minutes stay in check, Jokić will achieve the best of all worlds. He will be credited for Denver’s success as their best player in the regular season and perhaps win more individual awards in the process. In addition, Jokić would be far more rested for a playoff run if he played 2,450 minutes this season (roughly 34 minutes per game across 72 games) rather than nearly 3,000 (36 minutes per game across all 82 games). It may be difficult for Denver to accomplish without having a traditional backup center to rely upon, but between JaMychal Green and Jeff Green (along with the staggering of Porter with the bench unit) Denver can get it done.

Beyond improvements around him and additional rest, Jokić’s best case scenario also involves improving as a drop coverage defender, something he has struggled with since entering the league. He isn’t the most mobile or imposing big man, but being in better shape and entering the prime of his career means the possibility of improvement and consistency on the defensive end too. His ability to play drop coverage could have a massive benefit for the rest of Denver’s defense.

Beyond those things, just Jokić simply being Jokić would do just fine. It’s hard to improve on 26-11-8 on elite scoring and playmaking efficiency. Maybe 28-12-9? I don’t know. That’s unheard of, frankly.

Worst Case

The worst case scenario involves Denver failing to improve on the margins around Jokić to such a degree that he exhausts himself throughout the regular season. The Joker averaging close to 36 minutes per game due to the solution behind him being poor isn’t exactly a stretch of the imagination either. Without Murray, the Nuggets are already shorthanded on solutions to survive while Jokić rests. The bench unit at the moment inspires little confidence, and the idea that Porter staggering with the second unit, while good in theory, hasn’t manifested in the preseason thus far. The harder Jokić has to play during the regular season will likely have a direct correlation to his effectiveness in high leverage playoff situations.

There’s also the possibility of small regressions on the fringes of his player profile. He’s not going to become a significantly worse player or anything, but going from 38.8% from three to 35% from three isn’t an outlandish regression, nor is going from 56.6% from the field to 53% based on his shot profile. Jokić takes ludicrously tough shots to be making at such an efficient clip; if he misses those shots slightly more, the efficiency numbers go down and so does his lead on the rest of the superstars in the NBA.

Finally, there’s always the chance for injury, as bad as that sounds. If Jokić ever goes down, the Nuggets are royally screwed.

Bold Prediction

This might shock you, but I’m pretty high on Jokić this season. He’s very comfortable in his place on the team and in the league, and that will carry over this season. Jokić will average 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists per game while shooting 40% from three-point range, winning a second MVP award in a row while leading to the Nuggets to 50+ wins once again.

Can Jamal Murray help Denver push for a championship later this season?

2021-10-14T08:00:00-06:00

Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Evaluating star point guard Jamal Murray and his path to hopefully contributing for the Denver Nuggets later this season.

Jamal Murray 2020-21 Stats

Murray was putting together a career year through 48 games before he suffered a devastating ACL injury during a game against the Golden State Warriors. In 48 games before he missed the remainder of the season due to injury, Murray was averaging a career-high 21.2 points per game on 47.7 percent shooting from the field, 40.8 percent from three.

It was not just scoring where Murray made an impact as he averaged 4.8 assists and four rebounds per game. Murray was also averaging a career-high 1.3 steals per game as he truly was having a positive impact on both ends of the floor before he suffered his injury.

Overview

It felt like if Murray was able to stay healthy last season that Denver would’ve had a shot to reach their first NBA Finals in franchise history. The Nuggets ran into a buzzsaw in the Phoenix Suns, but with the help of Murray they definitely could’ve made that more of a series than they did. Luckily for the Nuggets they should hopefully get Murray back late in the season if everything goes according to plan with his rehab.

Murray suffered his ACL injury on April 12th, so if he returns towards the end of the season in say March that would be almost a year removed from the injury. There is no telling what Murray will look like if he is able to return this season, but if he’s anything like the player he was before the injury he should provide the Nuggets a massive boost come playoff time.

Best Case

Let’s say that everything is ahead of schedule and that Murray is able to return to play at the beginning of January. That would be nine months removed from his injury, which is rushing it for some athletes, while others have been able to accomplish that feat. For example, Adrian Peterson has one of the most famous ACL recovery stories as he returned to the field eight months after suffering the injury and looked better than ever.

If we know anything about Murray it’s that he’s a fighter and always seems to defy the odds. All the reports and videos surrounding Murray’s rehab have been positive, so hopefully Murray is able to return to the court sooner rather than later and let’s hope he continues to play like the dominant athlete who was taking the league by storm before he went down.

Great to see Jamal Murray getting healthy (via @BeMore27) pic.twitter.com/L9NTNiPSjZ
— Overtime (@overtime) August 9, 2021

Worst Case

A setback in Murray’s rehab that would force him to miss the entire 2021-22 season is definitely the worst case scenario. Now, say the Nuggets aren’t where they need to be in the standings to make a run once March rolls around then I would say it’s smart to rest and save Murray for next year. I don’t see that being the case though as I firmly believe this roster — led by the MVP, Nikola Jokic — will be able to keep this team afloat until Murray returns.

If the Nuggets want to make a run, they are going to need Murray to do so. Regardless of what happens in the regular season, Murray makes a massive difference to the Nuggets success in the postseason. Just look at the Jazz series from a season ago, the Nuggets don’t come anywhere close to advancing if they don’t have #27 leading the charge. Murray has the ability to change the course of a game in a flash, so hopefully he’s able to return towards the end of the year and help the Nuggets push for a championship.

Bold Prediction

I’m not afraid to say it: I think Murray returns at the beginning of March, starts to find his stride toward the end of the season, and helps lead the Nuggets to the NBA Finals. Are they going to win the finals once they get there? I’m never going to doubt a core four of Jokic, Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon.

Can Austin Rivers find a role with the Nuggets again this season?

2021-10-14T07:00:00-06:00

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Continuing our player preview series with Austin Rivers, who came onto the scene late last year and is looking to find his role on the Denver Nuggets again this season.

Austin Rivers 2020-21 Statistics (with Denver)

Rivers appeared in 15 regular season games and 10 playoff games for the Nuggets last season after starting the year with the New York Knicks. With the Nuggets, Rivers averaged 8.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. The playoffs was where Rivers really made his mark as he averaged 9.2 points and 2.1 assists per game, while shooting 41.3 percent from beyond the arc.

His three-point shooting is what really stood out, specifically in the postseason as Rivers averages jumped from what he shot (37.5) in the regular season. Rivers not only knocked down more three-pointers, but they were timely when the Nuggets needed them most. With the Nuggets desperately needing some more three-point help with Jamal Murray, PJ Dozier, and Will Barton down, Rivers 100 percent delivered.

Overview

Rivers burst one the scene late last season with the Nuggets and provided a massive spark when Denver needed him most. With guards going down left and right, Rivers provided the Nuggets solid depth and was a constant player they could rely on. Rivers made the most of every opportunity he was given, specifically in the Nuggets first round series victory over the Portland Trail Blazers.

In the Trail Blazers series, Rivers averaged 11.5 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and shot a scorching 48.4 percent from beyond the arc. Rivers best performance came in Game 3 when he dropped 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting from the field, 5-of-10 from beyond the arc. Denver won that game and they also won a pivotal Game 5 at home in which Rivers scored 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting from the field, 4-of-8 from three. The best part of that game was Rivers played 47 minutes in the Nuggets double overtime victory.

The question surrounding Rivers is where does he fit in with the Nuggets this season? A lot of the players who were injured last year — Barton, Dozier, Monte Morris — are healthy again and Rivers playing time last season came because those guys were out. Denver also has a pretty solid rookie in Bones Hyland and it sounds like he’s already in the Nuggets rotation, so where does that leave Rivers?

If the Nuggets deploy a rotation that features a starting unit of Monte Morris, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic that leaves their bench unit in the hands of Hyland, PJ Dozier, Jeff Green, JaMychal Green, Facundo Campazzo, and Austin Rivers. It’s doubtful the Nuggets can give every one of those bench players around 15 minutes a night and Hyland certainly has to be the first in line to get those with his youth and upside.

That leaves Campazzo and Rivers to duke it out for that final spot. It could be a scenario where Campazzo players one night and Rivers plays the other night until one of them separates themselves from the other. It could also be a situation where if another injury happens to one of the Nuggets guards that their next best replacement is already on the lineup in Rivers. One thing is for certain and it’s that their is a role to be had for Rivers on this team, what that role is might just become more clear over time.

Best Case

The best case scenario is hopefully Rivers can find a role that doesn’t take minutes away from players like Hyland and Dozier. To do that it may take beating Campazzo out of the rotation and if Rivers is able to do that I’d imagine he gets around 10-15 minutes per game.

What Rivers does with those minutes will be huge for him to stay on the court. As long as he’s productive on both ends of the floor and knocks down three-pointers consistently like he did last season then it will be tough to keep him off the floor.

If he doesn’t carve out a normal rotation spot the best case scenario for Rivers probably is the Nuggets don’t have to use him. That means everyone is staying healthy and once Jamal Murray returns — hopefully some time this season — it may push Rivers even further down the depth chart. If he does end up playing though Rivers showed he has plenty left in the tank last season and can produce anytime he is called upon.

Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Worst Case

It’s similar to what we said in the best case, but if Rivers is playing around 20-25 minutes per night that’s bad news for the Nuggets. It likely means one of the Nuggets guards suffered an injury and Rivers is filling in for him. Denver suffered way to many injuries at guard last season so you’d think their luck has to turn in the right direction this year, right?

Bold Prediction

As much as I’d like to imagine a world with no injuries, it’s just not that realistic. I think by the time December roles around, Rivers is going to have a pretty solid role on this Nuggets team averaging 15-20 minutes per game off the bench. Rivers will shoot over 40 percent from three like he did in the playoffs last year and it will make it almost impossible to keep him off the floor once everyone returns to the lineup from injury.

Will Michael Porter Jr. make another leap as Denver’s second option?

2021-10-13T07:30:00-06:00

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

MPJ is poised for an even bigger role this season... will he live up to the hype?

Overview

Michael Porter Jr. might be the most intriguing player on the Nuggets. He certainly has the most raw talent. And he’s the player who’s development this season and beyond will most determine if the Nuggets ever end up reaching their ceiling by winning the NBA championship or if they will simply remain a regular season juggernaut that can’t get over the hump.

Porter’s career in Denver has been a whirlwind, but when given the opportunities to play he’s more than delivered. In his second full season in 2020-21, MPJ averaged 19 points, 7.3 rebounds and shot 44.5% from three and finished third in Most Improved Player voting. Porter became even more valuable after Jamal Murray went down. In the 17 regular season games following Murray’s injury Porter ‘s scoring average jumped to 23.7 points on 47.1% from deep, helping the Nuggets to secure the three seed and ultimately defeat Portland in the first round.

The Nuggets expect that sort of output from MPJ as they head into 2021-22 with Murray still sidelined. Porter is now the clear second option behind Nikola Jokic and will bear that responsibility as opposing teams scheme to limit his effectiveness on offense and continue to target him on defense. It also comes with a new price tag worth up to $207 million starting next year from the extension signed this offseason. For better or for worse, Porter’s success will now be measured against his paycheck. If he’s deemed worthy of that kind of money, the Nuggets will be in a great place for years to come.

Best Case

The best case scenario for MPJ is that he makes yet another leap on both ends of the floor this season. We already know he’s a walking bucket, but if his preseason stats are any indication this is going to be a very good year: 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 53.8% 3P% on 6.5 attempts, all in just 24 minutes of playing time. Extrapolate those 24 minutes to the 35+ minutes he’ll actually play and holy shit.

If Porter’s ballhandling continues to improve so he can create his own scoring opportunities his value to Denver will skyrocket. If he catches one more pass per game under the basket without the ball going right through his hands that’s another scoring possession for Denver. It’s not unreasonable to think that Porter could average at least 25 points per game within the flow of the Nuggets offense, which spoiler alert, is going to be really good.

Defense will forever be a sticking point, but with Michael Malone behind the bench there’s no way Porter won’t be making strides on that end of the floor. Having defenders like Aaron Gordon and PJ Dozier around really help to mitigate any ineffectiveness Porter might have. Still, we should be surprised if Porter isn’t playing the best defense of his life this season.

Worst Case

It sucks that this is where we’re at 1.5 years into the pandemic, but the reality is that Porter’s vaccination status will loom over the team (it’s unclear whether or not he’s the only unvaccinated player on the Nuggets, but he is only one whose unvaccinated status was made public). Per the latest 2021-22 NBA protocols, any unvaccinated player who is deemed to have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive will face a mandatory seven-day quarantine. Guidance on what happens if an unvaccinated player tests positive is unclear at this time, but last year it meant up to a 10-day waiting period.

Given Porter’s Covid history (he tested positive once right before the bubble and once two weeks into last season) and how much the team travels etc. it seems inevitable that at some point this could be an issue, especially given the contact tracing rules. With many teams already fully vaccinated, including Western Conference rivals such as the Lakers and the Jazz, this could end up becoming a competitive disadvantage for Denver.

The Nuggets are absolutely relying on Porter to play the biggest role he’s had thus far, and potentially losing him for 7-10 days at random could be pivotal, especially if it occurs later in the season or heaven forbid the playoffs. It’s anyone guess what the NBA and Covid-19 landscape will be like over the course of the season, but worst case is Porter does miss time and it negatively affects the team and his shot at personal accolades.

Bold Prediction

MPJ will be an All-Star. He’s has always had the cult following, and this year he will finally have the stats to back it up - including a 50-point game at some point to really draw the attention to himself.

Is Jeff Green the piece the Nuggets bench was missing?

2021-10-13T07:00:00-06:00

Photo by Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

Jeff Green 2020-21 per game statistics

2020-21	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Field Goal %	Three-Point %	Box Plus-Minus
Regular Season	68	27.0	11.0	3.9	1.6	49.2	41.2	-1.0
Playoffs	6	24.7	8.2	2.8	1.7	48.5	55.6	+2.6

Overview

Jeff Green has been an NBA player for just about as long as I can remember, he came into the league during the 2007 NBA Draft. Green has bounced around to 11 different teams in his tenured career including the Seattle SuperSonics (Rest In Peace). He has always brought relatively the same skillset to the NBA but has slowly transitioned from a wing player to more of a big man. This will be Green’s first year as a Nugget, and I think he will fit in Denver perfectly.

Green signed a two-year, $9 million contract this off-season, the second year being a player option. That contract is team friendly and seems to me like the perfect contract for Green. He will be playing along side JaMychal Green in the bench rotation which allows for JaMychal to guard the more physical big man defensively while Jeff guards the more mobile big man. Jeff Green is also capable of playing small ball 5; he is athletic, shoots well, and can finish at the rim off the dribble if defenders get too close. Green’s play style was exactly what the Nuggets bench needed last year. This situation is ideal for him because he isn’t going to be asked to do too much, and his strengths line up well with the Nuggets weaknesses.

Best Case Scenario

Last year the Brooklyn Nets scored and rebounded better when Jeff Green was alongside another true center, but they also struggled defensively. JaMychal Green should be a great player for Jeff Green to play next to, since having both Greens out there together should make it more difficult for opposing teams to attack the paint, it will also limit the effectiveness of a post-up except against the best post options in the league. Having two players that could both play backup center is great for the Nuggets. Both Greens are big enough players to rotate and defend the paint well, covering for each other in the process. Overall, Jeff Green should make the Nuggets bench much better defensively.

Jeff Green’s offensive game really has few to no holes in it either, as he is at least average to pretty good at everything. Green shot 41% from three-point range last season and 56% from two-point range. His skill set has been really needed in the Nuggets second unit: a good paint defender who can stretch the floor and create for himself a little bit.

Green can also occasionally dunk on someone, even though that has been really the only part of his game to fall off due to age. Even though Jeff Green is 35 years old, he can still get up, as seen below with Green dunking all over Harry Giles during the preseason game against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Worst Case Scenario

Jeff Green has a high floor for productivity as a 15-year vet, but he also doesn’t have a high ceiling as a member of the Nuggets for that same reason. You know what you are getting from Jeff Green. He will rarely offer the spectacular performances but will give solid to pretty good performances every night.

With that in mind, Jeff’s worst case scenario in Denver is this being the year age finally catches up to him. Green was playing last year at relatively the same level he has been for his entire career, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue at the same level. It is pretty normal for players to start regressing at the age of 35 though, so I would not be totally shocked if Jeff Green does not look like the same player from last season. He still relies on his athleticism to get to the basket on some of his attempts, so if he loses some of that athleticism he could become more reliant on three-point shooting.

If Green can't be as physical as he has been in years past that could be an issue as well. Even if Green didn’t come to Denver as the same player he has been his whole career, he will still be getting minutes and probably will still be the backup 4 or 5. Ultimately, if Jeff Green plays at the same level he always has been the Nuggets will be good. If Green plays at 75% of the level he has in years past, then the Nuggets will probably just be okay with him on the floor.

Prediction

I believe that Jeff Green is an amazing pickup for the Denver Nuggets and will prove everyone who didn't think so wrong. He will also continue to posterize people and I’m expecting at least five posters from Jeff Green this season. He will be part of an important bench unit to keep the Nuggets afloat when their stars sit, and I think he will do just that.

Can PJ Dozier be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate?

2021-10-12T08:00:00-06:00

Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

After missing the playoffs with injury, the Nuggets need PJ Dozier more than ever, can he step in?

PJ Dozier 2020-21 per game statistics

Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Field Goal %	Three-Point %	Box Plus-Minus
50	21.8	7.7	3.6	1.8	41.7	31.5	-3.0

Overview

PJ Dozier had been a player who bounced around the league, first signing with the Dallas Mavericks, then playing in Oklahoma City and Boston, and finally landing in the Mile High City. Ever since arriving in Denver, he’s been an intriguing player with high defensive upside. He first signed with the Nuggets on a two-way contract but was soon converted to a standard contract just before the bubble on June 30th, 2020.

The contract he signed was a steal of a deal; it secured him for 3 years for just $3.9 million. That’s just above the league minimum for a player who has given the Nuggets very solid and productive minutes during his time here. Quite frankly, the Nuggets front office should be thanking their lucky stars they got him on such a cheap contract.

He’s brought very good — and at certain points elite — defense to Denver’s rotation. Hell, through the first 17 games of last season, he brought great three point shooting too; shooting 40.5 percent on 2.2 three point attempts a game. Then, he unfortunately missed some time with injury and never really got his shot falling the same way again. In his last 33 games before he missed the rest of the season with a hamstring injury, he only shot 28.6 percent from three on 3.4 attempts a game.

If Dozier can return to that 40 percent three point shooter he was before suffering his first injury, it would make a world of difference for the Nuggets this year. By adding a deadly shot to his already great defense while mixing in some underrated passing (especially out of the pick and roll), you get a player that is extremely valuable in this league. Dozier has the potential to be an all-around defensive minded wing with good length, someone who could realistically cover both guard positions and a significant number of forwards in the league.

PJ Dozier seems primed to make a leap. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen.

Best Case for 2021-22

PJ Dozier’s best case scenario would be winning the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award. I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a take to say he could get some buzz for it this year either. It’ll take a lot for him to accomplish such a feat, but he’s more than capable of doing it with some improvements here and there.

It would definitely take him shooting at bare minimum 37 percent from 3 on significant volume, which he was in line to accomplish before injuries derailed him last season. Another leap he’d have to take on the offensive end is being able to be a primary playmaker with the bench unit. I think that aspect of his game is already pretty far along though; and if current backup point guard Facu Compazzo struggles to create high level offense in high leverage games, it’s possible that head coach Michael Malone could ask PJ to do just that instead.

On the other end of the floor, he’d have to play at an all-defensive team level for the entire season. This is the part of his game that I feel most comfortable in saying is elite, and I think he’ll be able to show that this season. Will Barton or Monte Morris will more than likely miss some time, and on those nights I wouldn’t be surprised to see PJ start to defend the opposing teams’ best guard. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play heavy minutes off the bench to do the exact same thing either.

Worst Case for 2021-22

The worst case for PJ Dozier would be him falling out of the rotation due to injuries. As Michael Malone said, the biggest concern for Dozier is his health, so it’s not an unfounded belief if one might think he will miss too much time to be a consistent option.

Last season as a whole was a hellscape for all teams with injuries due to the ridiculous physical strain put on the players as a result of a heavily compressed schedule. It’s very possible that, given a full offseason to rest and recover, that Dozier can put some of his injury issues behind him and string together a strong season.

Beyond the injuries, if Dozier’s shooting never fully comes around for a full season and he remains inconsistent, it will be difficult to justify investing heavily into a role playing guard. The Nuggets are hopeful is shot comes around, but there’s a massive difference between a 40 percent shooter on high volume and a 31 percent shooter on moderate volume, which was where Dozier finished last year. If the shooting never bounces back, the Nuggets may struggle to score efficiently with Dozier playing a significant role.

One Bold Prediction

My bold prediction — and goal — for PJ Dozier this season would be that he’ll make an all-defensive team. He has the tools and grit to do it.

Can Facu Campazzo irritate opponents offensively as much as he does defensively?

2021-10-12T06:00:00-06:00

Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Facu enthralled the crowd with flashy passes and great defensive efforts. Now, can he adjust to modern NBA offenses?

Overview

At the age of 29, Facu Campazzo graced the NBA stage for the first time. His flashy passes, pesky defense, and big smile helped him become adored by the Nugget faithful but his game is anything but cute. He is known as a guy you love to have on your team but hate to play against because he is always in your space defensively and is physical for his size.

His impact isn’t measured by the box score, nor should it be. In fact, if you look at his numbers they are quite underwhelming for a guard but if there was a stat for energy and intensity he would be among the league leaders. Defensively, he has incredible technique paired with a strong will to prevent the opposition from getting by him. He gets under the skin of a lot of his opponents and if you watch a full Nuggets game, you will see Facu’s opponent jawing at him at some point.

The Nuggets needed a guy like Facu and every team needs a guy who is willing to do the dirty work with enthusiasm. His intangibles are in part what makes him a fan favorite, but the more physical aspects of his game are not his strengths. He’s not a great shooter nor a good finisher, and bigger opponents will find their way against him. In the NBA, he’s probably never going to be a guy you count on for 12 points a game, but if he can hit timely shots and play great defense, he will be executing his role.

Best Case

If Facu can make the defense think he is an offensive threat at any time during a possession that is a win. He has not provided Denver with consistent shooting so defenders don’t respect him as much right now, but that gives him the opportunity for some open looks this season. If he can make 2-3 threes a game on 5-6 attempts, defenders will have to start respecting him.

With a glass half full approach, you have to think Facu put in a lot of time working on his shot this offseason. With added practice and experience at the NBA level, Facu should increase his three-point percentage by a couple of points. The absolute best-case scenario is that he shoots 40% which would make him a near-elite threat but if he can hover around 38%, that will help Denver’s bench production tremendously.

The Nuggets' largest issue is the lack of production when Jokic steps off the floor. Facu will bring the defense every night, but he needs to provide some scoring off the bench to keep Denver afloat offensively. Since he is a professional basketball veteran, I do not foresee a sophomore slump for him. Instead, I see him jumping to around 38% from three and around 42% from the field.

Worst Case

The worst-case scenario would be if Facu’s production declines because he already has such a slim margin for error. His defense is a great value for this team but if he is a minus on the offensive end, it will be difficult to leave him in the game. As I said before, he needs to add some sense of an offensive threat to his game but as of now, he does not really have one. Facu has some games where he will hit three threes, but he misses a lot of layups and his outside shooting has been very inconsistent.

The defense will always be there for Facu because that’s his mentality but he can’t just will shots to go in. That’s more of a skill and he needs to develop that or some of Denver’s young guards will overtake him on the depth chart. If he regresses or even remains the same, Denver will continue to struggle off the bench.

This is an important season for Facu and one that might decide whether he is a fit on this team. Personally, I love Facu and the defensive mentality he brings but Denver is not much of a defensive team these days. They will have to keep pace offensively to beat opponents because they do not have a lot of defensive talent. If Facu can’t help this team keep pace then Malone will find someone else that will, so keep a steady eye on Facu’s offensive progression this year.

Bold Prediction

Facu presents his off-season work ethic by shooting 40% from three and floats around five assists a game. He becomes Denver’s most consistent bench piece.

Can Aaron Gordon continue to be the glue that fits the Nuggets together?

2021-10-11T06:00:00-06:00

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

AG is entering his first full year with the Nuggets and will play a pivotal role in the team’s success

Overview

Last season, after several fruitless seasons in Orlando, Aaron Gordon requested a trade and the Denver Nuggets came calling. Seeking after his defensive versatility and elite athleticism following the free agency departure of Jerami Grant, the Nuggets parted with longtime shooting guard Gary Harris and the high-upside RJ Hampton to bring AG to Denver.

Gordon immediately bolstered the Nuggets as the team went on a seven-game win streak following the acquisition, including huge wins over Philadelphia and a fully healthy Clippers squad. Denver earned a top-3 seed for the third season running and went on to defeat Portland in the first round, even without Jamal Murray.

Now, recognizing his impact as the ultimate “glue guy,” the Nuggets are investing heavily in Aaron Gordon to the tune of a four-year, $92 million contract extension. Gordon flashed a ton of potential last season but that was in a relatively small sample size. Will he continue to be the missing piece for the Nuggets?

Best Case

In his media week availability Gordon told the Denver Post, “I felt disgusting coming out of those playoffs. I felt like my touch was gone, I felt like I wasn’t playing to the capability that I know that I can. It was ugly, especially that Phoenix game. And then I was just worn down.” Ultimately, Gordon revealed he had lingering ankle and hamstring injuries that bothered him during the playoffs. A 100% healthy Gordon will make a huge difference for the Nuggets.

More importantly, with Jamal Murray missing extended time it will be up to the rest of the starters outside of Jokic to step up. Gordon is an elite slasher and above the rim player, but just a career 32.1% three-point shooter (though he shot 37.5% on 4.5 attempts per game with Orlando last year before the trade and 39.1% in the playoffs). He will get opportunities with MPJ and Jokic likely to draw double-teams. If AG can raise that clip at a consistent rate, the Nuggets offense will be that more deadly.

Worst Case

Aaron Gordon accepts an invitation to the 2022 Slam Dunk contest seeking redemption, and heartbreakingly loses in the finals for the third time.

All jokes aside, barring injury the worst case for Gordon is that he simply regresses and can’t hit his shots. His defense is critical to the team overall, but his skillset offensively is well-rounded enough that he can’t simply just be a body on the floor or a dunker, especially without Murray. For the Nuggets to truly succeed this season, Gordon has to be even better than he was in 2020-21 for them.

Bold Prediction

AG continues to improve from behind the arc and finishes the season at 38.5% from deep on 4.0 attempts per game. Yes, Gordon will transform into a near elite three-point threat.