Denver Stiffs - 20 questions season preview series

20 Questions: Will the Denver Nuggets be the best team in the Western Conference?

2019-10-18T06:00:00-06:00

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Nikola Jokic is ready to lead. Are the Nuggets ready to follow?

“Why not us?”

That’s the question surrounding roughly eight or nine teams during this NBA season. Why not us? Why can’t we win a championship? The Golden State Warriors are breaking up like the Beatles. The defending NBA champion Toronto Raptors just lost Kawhi Leonard. Every other team is as unproven as they can be.

Why not us?

Why not the Denver Nuggets? Why can’t the Denver Nuggets, the team that hasn’t made an NBA Finals since they were in a different league, the team that has advanced to the second round of the playoffs just twice since I was born into this world, make it that far?

Well, history says so. The Nuggets have never won a Finals before. Why start now? Geography says so too. The Nuggets don’t reside in a premier market where stars go to shine in the bright lights of a big city.

What makes the Denver Nuggets different now than they were in those previous failing iterations? Sticking with the school subject theme, let’s start with the chemistry.

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The Nuggets are a close knit bunch. They hang out together, have fun, have similar interests, and simply vibe with each other off the court more than many teams in the NBA. Maybe even all of them. This group wants to win, and they want to do it together. Michael Porter Jr., a high profile newcomer with even higher expectations, told the media during training camp that this group roots for each other, no matter who’s out there, and no matter the situation. There will be players sitting out too, so this group will have to have elite chemistry to make it work.

Part of chemistry is continuity though, familiarity with the team, the city, the players, and more. The Nuggets have more continuity than any other team in the NBA, bringing back all nine of their top playoff contributors to go with Porter, Juancho Hernangomez, and Jarred Vanderbilt among players who are familiar with this situation. In trading for Jerami Grant, they added another like-minded individual to the current group of players on this roster—a hard worker that puts his head down and focuses calmly on the task at hand. It seems unlikely that Grant would upset the balance of power and what’s expected of him in Denver.

And now, let’s focus on the math. The Nuggets went 54-28 in 2018-19 and are really talented and really young, but they were young last year too. Perhaps younger at heart. Many members of the roster never experienced the playoffs before last April and May, but now, with a year of experience under their belts, it seems like the Nuggets are ready to grow up even more.

Common sense, considering the age curve and the additions of Grant and Porter, would suggest that the Nuggets are even more loaded than last year. They are ready to break out and be the best team in the West.

But the question is, will they be?

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The Nuggets weren’t the only team to make improvements last season. The Los Angeles Clippers added both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to their roster, upgrading over Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as great as those two pieces can be. The Los Angeles Lakers depleted all useful young assets to acquire big man Anthony Davis and pair him with an aging, albeit spectacular LeBron James. The Houston Rockets couldn’t take the Chris Paul-James Harden feuding any longer and decided to acquire Russell Westbrook, adding him to the core of a team that pushed the Golden State Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference Finals just two seasons ago. Even the Utah Jazz added multiple quality starters, including a borderline All-Star guard in Mike Conley, to their core group of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell.

How can the Nuggets keep up with the influx of talent all around them in the Western Conference? The star power being thrown out there in the last several sentences is mind-boggling. The Nuggets have one top 10 talent in Nikola Jokic, but they sure don’t have two. They might never if Jamal Murray doesn’t exceed expectations or Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t figure it out.

In addition, the Nuggets still have several weaknesses outside of a lack of top end talent when compared to other NBA teams. The defense remains a concern, especially if the starting offense cannot function properly with Torrey Craig starting at small forward. Without Craig in the lineup, the Nuggets have a distinct lack of defensive options against the star wings in the Los Angeles area, and the Nuggets still have yet to solve the James Harden conundrum. The last time they faced Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz, he dropped 46 points on them.

Then there’s the Nuggets’ top level three-point defense which, while technically accurate last year, is unlikely to be the best defense once again this year. Nick Kosmider and Seth Partnow of The Athletic discussed the reasoning behind this three-point defense in an article yesterday as Partnow stated:

“For starters, 3-point field-goal percentage is not a great measure of a team’s defense. The overwhelming majority of evidence suggests that the percentage opponents shoot is largely outside of a defense’s control. This isn’t to say good 3-point defense isn’t a thing; it’s crucial in the modern NBA! But measuring by percentage misses important things. First of all, even on the most open of shots, the league shoots in the low 40s, so there is a lot of “make-or-miss league” built-in. Secondly, even though defensive pressure does tend to reduce opponent shooting percentage, it also causes players to do something else with the ball.

“I think attempt rates are a much better measure of a team’s ability to deny 3-point looks. And … it wasn’t great for the Nuggets there. They allowed 36.6 percent of opponent non-heave attempts to be taken from 3-point range. This alone doesn’t fatally compromise a defense. Milwaukee, for example, allowed the highest proportion of threes in the league at 38.6 percent, but the Bucks also allowed the fewest restricted-area attempts while Denver was 25th. Overall, the Nuggets allowed 71.2 percent of opponent shots to come from these “high value” areas, 22nd in the league”

(Make sure to check out the rest of Kosmider’s discussion with analytics guru Seth Partnow in the hyperlink above)

This happens to be a take I fully agree with and endorse. The Nuggets cannot control how well an opposing team shoots threes against them. It’s a make-or-miss league, and the Nuggets got a bit lucky. That doesn’t mean they can’t get lucky again, and it doesn’t mean they can’t continue to make improvements to their defensive scheme, but it’s hard to see the Nuggets surviving three round of playoff basketball and making their first NBA Finals if it doesn’t improve. The Nuggets added Jerami Grant, who I feel may be underrated by the analytics defensively due to who he played with on a consistent basis in Oklahoma City. Grant is leaps and bounds more attentive and athletic than Trey Lyles, the backup power forward last season. He may even be the answer to Denver’s small forward problem in the playoffs.

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But to say one way or the other that the Nuggets are definitely the best team or they don’t have a chance this season would be ludicrous. Either way, there’s a lot of gray area for the first time in the last several NBA seasons as to who the true contenders are. Maybe the Nuggets figure out the defense with more consistency while improving their offense to top five levels? Not an otherworldly improvement for a young team. Maybe the Nuggets still have these questions in the postseason but they run into a Lakers team with Anthony Davis dealing with more nagging injuries. Certainly not out of the question.

Either way, this is the year for the Nuggets to either say “we’re not quite ready yet” or “we’re coming for the crown because we know we’re good enough.” Both scenarios are possible. The Nuggets have that much talent and are well positioned to acquire more if necessary.

Will the Nuggets be the best in the West? It’s all conjecture at this point, but I have a feeling the Nuggets will answer that question many times over this season.

20 Questions: how versatile can Jerami Grant be this season?

2019-10-16T23:50:00-06:00

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Answer: very versatile

The Denver Nuggets have one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They can throw waves and waves of players at opponents, overwhelming teams in the regular season. The post-season is a different animal, though, where depth is less important than top-flight talent. Having one person who can do several different things at a high level is more important than an excess of talented bodies. In a year when Denver’s key to winning the top seed in the West could be its continuity, the real key to the post-season will be whether Jerami Grant can really do everything for the Nuggets.

Grant set career highs in minutes and points last year, but also showed very significant improvements in outside shooting and willingness to score from all levels. He went from an athletic finisher to an all-around talent on both ends of the floor. Denver traded a first round pick for him and in turn received the right to exceed the salary cap to retain him after this season - and to get what they hope is his best year yet.

To be honest, it’s also a bet that the performance Grant put on last year was not an anomaly. Until last year, Grant was flexible on defense but not necessarily plus-rated. He’s fast enough and long enough to defend multiple positions but his defensive ratings were sub-par. Then last year he proved that his part-time work in the 2017-18 season was not an illusion, spending big minutes putting up very good defensive numbers against a variety of positions, while shooting almost 40% from three on nearly 300 attempts. That mark is far and away his best on anything close to that number of shots. Last year Grant put it together on both ends, as a starter, and showed just how much of an asset he can be.

Denver has been playing him off the bench thus far in the preseason but make no mistake: this is an audition to replace Paul Millsap as the lynchpin of Denver’s defense, from someone who might be a significant upgrade from range. Millsap has never been a great distance shooter - Grant is positioning himself as the modern NBA version of Millsap, who can shoot from deep, play the 4 or the 5, and handle all kinds of defensive assignments. Grant is much less of a rebound threat than Millsap, but the Nuggets have one of the better rebounders in the league already in Nikola Jokic. They’re also stacked with tall young rebounders. Grant’s newly-unleashed ability to play perimeter defense will necessitate him leaving the rebounding area. Grabbing boards is not his duty with the Nuggets.

It’s everything else that will help unlock Denver’s potential. If his abilities beyond the arc are legitimate - and they’ve looked quite tempting in the preseason - then it opens the paint up for cutters and penetration in a way that Millsap and Mason Plumlee cannot. It changes the “clog the paint” potential that teams will try to swarm Jokic and prevent Jamal Murray’s path to the basket in the playoffs.

And if Grant can continue to be a plus defender on the perimeter against wings while also manning the helpside block role, that allows Denver several options to field some shut-down defenses with Gary Harris taking the more dangerous primary ball-handler. Denver was one man short in several defensive rotations last year, and a healthy roster this year that can field Harris, Torrey Craig, Grant and Millsap for several minutes at a time would be a new wrinkle for opponents to deal with. Closing in tight games would also be stronger, and might help the Nuggets maintain their high success rate in close games from last season.

Grant is a high-upside bet for this year, and for the long-term. He is not the guy to run the offense through - he can’t pass like Millsap. He hasn’t shown those quick hands for deflections and steals either. But when it comes to athletic finishes at the rim and in transition he can do things that Paul simply cannot any longer. Grant’s weaknesses are covered by other Nuggets members. Denver has passers; they were second in the NBA in assists last year. They are adding two players over 6’9 in Michael Porter Jr. and Jarred Vanderbilt who can hit the boards if Grant is out on the perimeter.

But they do not have anyone who can do all the things that Jerami Grant can do. And when the Nuggets get into the second season, his versatility all over the court will give Denver a weapon in a shortened playoff rotation that they were missing last year - and one that can get them into conference finals and beyond.

20 Questions: Can Will Barton bounce back from a down season?

2019-10-09T06:00:00-06:00

Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

The Nuggets swingman earned a new contract and a starting position in 2018, but injuries derailed his season before it could get started. What does this year hold in store?

One game.

That’s how many games Will Barton was able to notch as an official starter for the Denver Nuggets. After Tim Connelly had rewarded Barton for his perseverance, for his ability to overcome the hurdles that had been placed in his path, he only had one full game to show what he could do before going down with a hip injury that limited him all season.

I don’t think there are many of us that can truly understand what it must have felt like for Barton last year. Think of all the things that make Will Barton who he is: the swag, the confidence, the smile, the joy that he has interacting with his teammates on and off the court. Barton is one of the voices that rises up in the locker room, an individual that creates his own gravity, and people love to be around him. There are several people responsible for helping improve the culture of the Nuggets, but I think there are a lot of people that would admit that Barton has played a huge role in establishing the culture that exists there today.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a young man from Serbia who was likely struggling to adjust to life in the United States has such a strong relationship with Barton. I think it’s fair to say that without Barton, Jokic isn’t the same Jokic that the Nuggets have today.

So to see him struggle on the court, to be robbed of the thing that has brought him so much happiness, helped craft him into the person that he is today, because of his body breaking and not recovering the way he wanted it to, was really disheartening.

But one of the amazing things about being human is that our spirits have the power to overcome. Our spirits can be beaten, submerged, buried in pits that feel inescapable, but they will never allow us to cease striving for more and more light.

Yes, Barton statistically had a down year. He looked unsure of himself after he returned to the court. He looked tentative on his drives to the rim. The Will Barton that Nuggets fans knew would have never been afraid to get to the rim, and we knew somehow he’d find a way to score. That didn’t happen last year.

The Barton that Nuggets fans knew never would have lacked confidence to take a shot when his teammates needed him. Barton had put in so much work to become a player that teams had to respect from the perimeter, and for a player that was so dangerous as a slasher, being able to knock down that 3-point shot helped expand his game to heights that not many thought he’d be able to reach. But last season, in the playoffs, when his teammates really needed him, when Nuggets fans wished with all the energy they had, the shots didn’t fall.

Barton accepted that in order to be a starter, especially as the starting small forward, he was going to have to be a better defender. He was saying all the right things and doing everything the coaches were asking of him. He worked on his agility, was studying film, and most importantly, accepted the challenge that was placed in front of him and set his mind on overcoming it. But after the injury, his body wasn’t able to perform as well as his mind and spirit wanted him to. Without the ability to contribute on the offensive and defensive ends of the court, the coaching staff had no choice but to cut back his minutes and decrease his role on the team.

Barton’s ability to get back on the trajectory his career was on before his injury last season is a huge question for the team, and for Barton as well. It’s not like the team doesn’t have options at the small forward position this season. Michael Porter Jr. has grabbed the reins as the exciting young player on the team, Torrey Craig stepped up in a huge way after Barton went down, Juancho Hernangomez is healthy and has a nice piece of gold after the summer, and (Zach Mikash made me write this) Vlatko Cancar has crossed the Atlantic Ocean. If Barton doesn’t earn minutes at small forward, the shooting guard position is chock full too. Gary Harris is back healthy after injuries hindered him last season, and Malik Beasley is ready to show every other team in the NBA what they could have on their roster if they decide to pay up for him as he is about to enter restricted free agency. There’s a universe where Barton isn’t able to get minutes this season.

Thankfully for the Nuggets, I don’t think we live in that universe.

Can Will Barton bounce back this season? I sure hope so. If you’re looking to get a logical explanation breaking down the odds of Barton being able to be Will Barton this season, you’re not going to get it today. I hope Barton bounces back this season. I hope that we get to see the guy that goes out on the court dapping up both fans and teammates, yammering away to anyone that will listen about what he’s about to do, and how much fun it is going to be to do so. I hope that Barton bounces back, because I want to believe in the power of a group of people collectively wishing for something to happen, and the universe responding by making it so. I want to see Barton back out there, throwing down dunks, posing after made 3-pointers, and starting fastbreaks with a big steal. I desperately want to see Barton encourage Michael Porter Jr. to make a free throw with the game on the line, and then threaten him to make the next one after the first one clangs off the back iron.

I want to see the kid from Baltimore that loved basketball as a kid, the young man that went to school in Memphis that loved basketball as a young man, and the man that found a home in Denver that loves basketball as a man.

I want to see Will Barton in Game One, lining up across from his former team on October 23, with the world watching on ESPN, and see the confidence spread slowly across his face as he realizes that yes, he can bounce back. I want to see Will Barton back.

Twenty Questions: Which teams pose a threat to the Nuggets title aspirations?

2019-10-08T02:00:00-06:00

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Nuggets have made it clear they expect to win a title but the path to the promise land is littered with excellent teams

The Denver Nuggets made it clear on media day: this team has it’s site set on winning an NBA championship. The idea is a foreign one for most Nuggets fans and certainly it’s new territory for the team itself but with the shakeup of the Golden State Warriors, the fallout of Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors, and the rest of the movement across the league, the NBA sets out on a season with parity the likes of which hasn’t been seen in decades. Meanwhile, the Nuggets bring back the same roster, plus a few key additions that led them within a game of the conference finals. They absolutely should expect to contend for a championship. With the aforementioned league wide roster reconstructions though, who will the Nuggets be contending with?

The no doubt contenders

Los Angeles Clippers

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The biggest benefactor of one of the crazier offseasons the NBA has seen was the Los Angeles Clippers. Their haul of Leonard and Oklahoma City Thunder superstar wing Paul George was the bombshell of the Summer. Though the Clippers gave up a historic haul in terms of picks, they still managed to keep a number of key pieces in their rotation including Montrezl Harrell, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Ivica Zubac.

Leonard and George will provide size, athleticism and gobs of talent on the wings while their supporting role players in the starting lineup will boast impressive defense. The frontcourt depth is a little suspect, but the one two punch of Williams and Landry Shamet is a dynamite backcourt off the bench. It’s hard to argue a team is better suited for a title run than the Clippers

Milwaukee Bucks

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Like the Nuggets, the Bucks enjoy a good amount of continuity after a very successful 2018-2019 campaign. They have the reigning MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo and locked up Khris Middleton over the Summer. Eric Bledsoe, despite his post season woes, is still a dynamic point guard and Brook Lopez is still enjoying a career renaissance as “Splash Mountain.” The Bucks did lose a quality starter in Malcolm Brogdon this offseason but bolstered their two guard spot with veterans Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver as well as bringing in Lopez’s younger brother Robin to hold down their backup five spot.

The Bucks are one of few teams in the NBA who can rival Denver’s depth top to bottom in their rotation and they have arguably the best player on the planet. With the Raptors now Kawhi-less the Bucks path to the finals couldn’t be more clearer. They’d also be a nightmare matchup for the Nuggets who don’t have much they could throw at Giannis in the way of defenders. Milwaukee won both matchups with Denver last season behind their powerful frontcourt combo of Antetokounmpo and Lopez.

The likely contenders

Houston Rockets

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Houston is a bit of an enigma going into the season. They’ve tried a couple different iterations of supporting casts around James Harden and Clint Capela but have yet to find the combo that can push them over the hump. The much ballyhooed trade of Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook may turn off some from the Rockets championship prospects but it’s premature to eliminate them from the conversation. The fact of the matter is for the 2019-2020 Rockets Westbrook over Paul is a definite upgrade. Yes, it’s going to be a challenge for coach Mike D’Antoni to figure out how to navigate the two of the most ball dominant guards in the league but Westbrook and Harden have a chemistry that seemed to always be lacking in the short lived Paul/Harden era.

The Rockets like the Bucks and Nuggets also will boast an impressive amount of depth and continuity with their star trio. Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Gerald Green are back while Houston added veteran pieces like Ryan Anderson, Tyson Chandler and Thabo Sefolosha. Houston still has to prove they can get over the hump in the playoffs, and Westbrook certainly doesn’t bring the most sterling postseason resume, but there was little doubt last year of their chances against Denver in a playoff series. As long as Harden and Capela are on the roster the Rockets will continue to be a difficult matchup because no duo can attack Jokic better than they can.

Philadelphia 76ers

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The 76ers were excruciatingly close to making the conference finals last season just like the Nuggets. They too will bring back a very similar roster, though there have been some big changes to their lineup as well. Jimmy Butler is now in Miami but in his wake comes Al Horford and Jason Richardson. The Sixers will likely run out a starting lineup of Ben Simmons, Jason Richardson, Tobias Harris, Horford and Joel Embiid which is monstrous in both talent and physical size. Defensively this team should be stellar and they’ve got Simmons surrounded with scoring and/or shooting talent on the offensive end to maximize his talents.

The depth is a bit suspect in Philly. They are going to be relying on some young guys like Zhaire Smith and Matisse Thybulle to play some big roles off their bench while also hoping veterans like Mike Scott and Raul Neto can still be productive. Nothing screams great bench about this roster but its not a total mess either. With the starting lineup as powerful as it is and as versatile as it is coupled with the fact that the Bucks really stand as the only for sure competition in the East at a Finals run, the 76ers absolute stand to be a potential Finals opponent for the Nuggets.

The Dark Horses

Los Angeles Lakers

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The Lakers could certainly be considered a likely contender. The betting public certainly sees it that way. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are as good as any duo in the league. It’s because of those two that the Lakers aren’t a total bottom feeder, let alone a contender though and LeBron is going to be 35 while Davis hasn’t exactly had the best luck with health in the NBA. We’ve seen that its going to be a challenge for either to lead this squad to playoff success on their own so an injury to either star could derail their Finals aspirations quicker than any other contender. Still, it’s hard to pick against those two guys in a seven game series no matter who is the opponent.

Once again the Lakers have assembled a curious collection of talent around their stars with the likes of Javale Mcgee and Rajon Rondo returning for what should be prominent, starting even, roles on the squad. They added Danny Green and Avery Bradley to bolster their wings which will round out what should be a very stingy perimeter defense. Unfortunately DeMarcus Cousins went down with an ACL injury in the Summer which will hurt. Cousins was still working his way back from an achilles tear last year but you saw flashes of that skill that made him one of the best bigs in the league. Without him the Lakers are very thin behind their starting frontcourt. With Cousins they are a definite contender but without him its not as easy of a pick.

Utah Jazz

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In a lot of people’s minds the Jazz had the best Summer of any team not in L.A. They added star point guard Mike Conley, a solid wing in Bojan Bogdanovic and bolstered their depth with guys like Jeff Green and Ed Davis. The main question about Utah in regards to whether or not they can contend for a title is a very similar one to the Nuggets: can their young stars get it done on the biggest stage? Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert have a decent amount of playoff experience now so the natural progression would be a conference finals or deeper run but like the Nuggets the Jazz have been susceptible to bad matchups in the playoffs they can’t overcome. Most notably: Houston. Mitchell and Gobert will have to show they can overcome whoever they play in the postseason.

There’s also some depth concerns for Utah, particularly at point guard. Conley had a bounce back year last season but he’s still just two years removed an achilles injury of his own. He also turns 32 in a couple of days. While there’s certainly reason to believe he still has plenty left in the tank, Conley is not a spring chicken anymore and the players behind him aren’t great. Dante Exum and Emmanuel Mudiay have had their share of struggles, albeit for different reasons, and both remain very unproven on the NBA level. Without Conley the Jazz would still be a lot to handle, but it’s hard to call them a Finals contender. As long as he is healthy though, he might just be the piece that can get Utah over that aforementioned hump

20 Questions: What will Denver’s closing lineup be in clutch situations?

2019-10-07T06:00:00-06:00

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Nuggets have a deep team, but despite how much talent there is, they can only put five players on the court at a time. Who will Coach Malone put on the court to close out games?

If you can take a trip down memory lane to the 2018-19 season, and think, “The Nuggets sure did have a lot of close games,” you’d be correct!

The Denver Nuggets finished the 2018-19 season tied for fourth in the league with games that came down to what the NBA defines as a “clutch” game. A clutch game is when the point differential between both teams is five or less in the final five minutes of the game. That is normally when coaches will put out their closing lineup, generally the five best players on the team, to either maintain a lead or rally to snatch a win from the jaws of defeat.

No team in the NBA had a higher winning percentage than the Nuggets did in those scenarios, per NBA Stats. Whether those wins came from a game-winning basket or a game-winning blocked shot, the Nuggets consistently scrapped together wins in games where things got tight.

It’s something that could be a cause for concern with the Nuggets record this season, because they have not historically been a team that does well in clutch games. Since the 2009-10 season, the Nuggets have finished with a top-10 winning percentage in clutch games once (2012-13). For comparison, the San Antonio Spurs, a franchise known for their elite level of performance over the last 20 years, have finished in the top-10 seven times over the same time frame.

Ideally, teams won’t have to close out clutch games in the first place, but if the Nuggets are going to be one of the top teams in the league, they’re going to hopefully be in anywhere from 35-50 close games this season. There are a number of questions when it comes to clutch time for any team. How do the Nuggets win those games this year? Which players are the most conducive to end-of-game success for the Nuggets? How are the coaches going to choose those players? How will the rotations be managed during the game so the team can peak at the exact right time?

The Case for Consistency

Much like the starting lineup, there are a couple no-doubt players that are going to be part of the closing lineup. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets two best players, are going to be on the court. The Nuggets are fortunate that the players they’ve given out max contracts to also happen to be their best players, and part of the reason they’re paid as much as they are is because they’re expected to be able to perform well in the clutch.

The other player that is a no-doubt piece of the closing lineup is Gary Harris. Harris’ ability to excel on both ends of the court makes him valuable at the end of games. He can fight through screens, rebound, and on occasion, knock down buzzer beating 3-pointers.

While he may not enjoy being part of this highlight, the player that was trucked by Wilson Chandler to set up that game-winner, Jerami Grant, might be part of the closing lineup for the Nuggets this season. It seems unlikely that Grant would close games at power forward for the Nuggets in the beginning of the season, but I expect him to grow into that role by February.

Part of the battle in the preseason with the small forward position isn’t just for the starter role - it also needs to be for the closer role. The coaching staff has to weigh in how well the other players in the closing lineup are doing as well. If Murray starts the season slow again in regards to his perimeter jumper, the Nuggets might find themselves closing with Will Barton or Juancho Hernangomez rather than Torrey Craig.

While there may be chatter about someone other than Millsap closing at power forward, it would be very surprising if he didn’t fill that role at least initially. Millsap is the veteran of the team, and his teammates rely on him more than the casual fan may realize. Even if he declines a bit from last season, his experience is what keeps him on the court in the final minutes of the game.

No matter who they decide to close at the beginning of the season, they should commit to that group for at least 20-30 games, barring health. It allows the team to adjust rotations, practice situations, and know who is going to bear the responsibility of picking up wins. These players need repetition to grow comfortable with their defensive rotations, so they are reacting rather than thinking about what to do. They need reps to grow comfortable with each other on offense, knowing the precise timing for screens, cuts, moves to the basket, and how to rebound. They need to develop trust, and rely on each other when things get the toughest.

A team like the Spurs has excelled in the clutch historically not only because they have great players, but because they had a great coach who helped facilitate excellent chemistry. They could attack opponents and their weaknesses precisely because they knew what their own strengths and weaknesses were in those final possessions. If the Nuggets follow that model, and commit to a closing group, they could develop into an unstoppable force at the end of games.

The Case for Playing Matchups

The Nuggets have the talent to field an 11-man rotation during the season. They can match up with nearly every team in the league. When they’re closing against the Lakers, they can rotate Jerami Grant and Millsap on LeBron James, leaving Jokic to bully Anthony Davis off the court. When they’re closing against the Rockets, they can rotate Torrey Craig and Gary Harris against Russell Westbrook and James Harden, keeping their best defenders on the court to check those elite guards.

With players like Jerami Grant, Michael Porter Jr., Jarred Vanderbilt, Torrey Craig, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, and Mason Plumlee, the Nuggets have players that can defend multiple positions. While Murray and Jokic will always close, the coaching staff can adjust to lineups they’re comfortable with to emphasize offense or defense. Check out a few of the combinations the coaching staff can assemble:

Murray, Beasley, Barton, Juancho, Jokic - all offense
Murray, Harris, Beasley, Porter Jr., Jokic - four shooters around Jokic
Morris, Murray, Beasley, Harris, Jokic - four guards around Jokic
Morris, Beasley, Grant, Vanderbilt, Plumlee - pick and roll lobs/switch
Murray, Beasley, Porter Jr., Grant, Vanderbilt - transition
Barton, Harris, Grant, Millsap, Jokic - switch everything/halfcourt offense
Morris, Beasley, Cancar, Hernangomez, Vanderbilt - blowout closing lineup

The list can go on and on - by now, it should be clear that the Nuggets can match-up effectively against so many different lineups. Because they have so many good players that excel in different areas, they will always have an option to counter whatever lineup an opponent decides to throw out there.

This is where the incredible value of the offseason trade for Jerami Grant can be seen. Grant’s versatility affords him the ability to guard three positions, and that is paramount in the final minutes. As he develops chemistry with Jokić, Murray, and Harris, that will create more opportunities for him to contribute at the end of games.

Verdict

I may be on an island here, but I think the Nuggets will eventually settle on a closing lineup of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, and Nikola Jokić. I’m hoping that Grant is able to shoot three-pointers at a 37-percent rate this year — this would allow him to play in the frontcourt alongside Millsap and Jokić.

The key to this lineup isn’t Grant’s shooting though — it’s Murray and Harris’ ability to excel from the perimeter. If Murray isn’t knocking down three or four three-pointers a game at a 40-percent rate or better, Coach Malone will need to put another shooter on the court, in the form of either Will Barton or Juancho Hernangomez.

I think Coach Malone values defense over everything else, and he's going to want to grind out possessions in the final five minutes, relying on Jokić to generate points in tandem with Murray. Jokić was able to deliver in the playoffs, and hopefully he'll be able to replicate that level of performance for a few minutes every night throughout the regular season.

20 questions: Will Nuggets fans watch games on Altitude TV this year?

2019-10-04T06:00:00-06:00

Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Altitude TV is synonymous with Denver Nuggets basketball. Will Nuggets fans get to enjoy the broadcasts this year?

The Denver Nuggets haven’t been on national television very often.

For a team that I have watched for several years, ever since the 2008-09 season, it’s always apparent when the Nuggets are in fact on the big stage. Generally, the color commentator will say something that’s only partially true about the make-up of the Nuggets as a whole, or the announcer will repeatedly mispronounce a player’s name. Nikola Jokic, for whatever reason, was a really difficult one during his rookie season despite probably being Denver’s most competent player at such a young age.

It’s for this reason that I grew fond of the commentary duo of Chris Marlowe and Scott Hastings on Altitude TV. Some of the best commentating calls I can remember were made by Marlowe and Hastings, especially in some of the weirdest games. The one that stood out most clearly was an and-1 circus layup by Danilo Gallinari during the 2012-13 season, In the words of the esteemed Marlowe, it was “the shot of the century.”

For Nuggets fans with Comcast (like me), DirecTV, or DISH Network, listening to Hastings and Marlowe is about to get much harder.

As many well know, Altitude TV is in a major contract dispute with the above three major networks over how much money Altitude will receive to continue producing content. From Nuggets games, to hockey and the Colorado Avalanche, to soccer and the Colorado Rapids, to high school football games, Altitude broadcasts a variety of non-NFL and MLB sports content and does a great job with it. From creative documentaries like the one produced covering Nuggets legendary player/coach Doug Moe to a studio show for each sport, Altitude has provided some of the shine when the Nuggets are good and helped ease the pain when the Nuggets are bad. They are very important to the Nuggets local brand.

Unfortunately, regional sports networks aren’t highly profitable for companies like Comcast, and because of that, the importance of the work Altitude does may not necessarily matter. This is a business after all, and with the world trending ever closer to streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu, it’s no wonder that cable companies are feeling the squeeze on profits and are looking for every dollar possible. Each of these corporate giants are looking for an advantageous deal, and until somebody blinks, no one wins.

Colorado sports fans are already feeling the affects of the contract dispute. The Avalanche won their opening game of the season 5-3 against the Calgary Flames last night, but nobody in Colorado with the above three cable networks saw the game live. This drastically reduces the shine on what should be an excellent Avalanche season coming up, and the Nuggets are about to be caught in the crossfire too. Denver’s first preseason game on October 8th will be broadcast on ESPN, but the final three games will not be seen by Nuggets fans unless they watch Denver’s only home preseason game on October 17th.

Denver will play 58 total regular season games with no national ties whatsoever, meaning Altitude is responsible for carrying over two-thirds of Denver’s season by itself. Being unable to watch two-thirds of Denver’s games would become untenable for Nuggets fans, who have been kicking down Pepsi Center’s doors to see a true championship contender for over a decade. Not broadcasting games for such a promising young organization would be despicable, especially since they would be the biggest show in Denver following the Rockies’ disappointing year and during the Broncos’ current eight-game losing streak spanning two seasons.

Whatever needs to happen simply has to at this point. All sides lose if Nuggets games aren’t shown. The cable companies lose revenue. Altitude loses revenue. The fans are the most important in this situation though with hard earned dollars and time spent dedicated to watching a team that doesn’t show up on TV. They fund the entire sport through their interest and willingness to shell out cash to watch games. Pissing off fans would be the final straw in this case, and NBA commissioner Adam Silver isn’t going to let that happen for too long before taking drastic action.

Will Altitude finally break and sign the contract these cable companies are offering? Will the cable companies back down first? Time will tell, but I expect this deal to get done before the season. Both entities know how important Nuggets games are going forward, and I’d expect concessions to be made on both sides before meeting in the middle on a deal nobody really wants to make.

Either way, Nuggets games are fast approaching, and imagining Michael Porter Jr. and Jerami Grant missing their Nuggets debuts because billionaires are fighting about money is not an enjoyable scene.

20 questions: Are the Nuggets set up for a midseason trade?

2019-10-03T01:00:00-06:00

Photo by Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

The Nuggets have more good players than available roster spots - something has to give

Here we are again: training camp has started and Nuggets nation is going crazy figuring out how Denver can possibly get time for all of its good players. The Nuggets passed on consolidation this summer, choosing instead to swap a first round pick for Jerami Grant as the heir apparent to Paul Millsap. From a value perspective it was a great move: add a 25 year old starting-caliber forward on the same age timeline as the core of the team who can defend the perimeter and fit extremely well next to Nikola Jokic for the price of just a first-rounder.

But it leaves Denver with the same over-stuffed roster and the same conundrum they’ve faced for years. Will the Nuggets be able to solve the problem this year and get back value for its players that either do not fit or cannot be afforded in future years, or will another trade deadline pass without Denver pulling the trigger? It happened with Danilo Gallinari, who left in free agency, and with Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried who had to have picks included to move off their contracts.

The Nuggets will not have to pay to move contracts this year. They have expirings in Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee, while Juancho Hernangomez, Malik Beasley, and Torrey Craig will all be Restricted Free Agents. With Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray tying up nearly 59 million dollars of next year’s cap money, Denver will have to be judicious about how they spend the rest. Can the Nuggets keep Juancho, or Malik? Sure, they can make that work. Can they keep both? That’s where it gets dicey.

The odds are against them keeping either, really, but retaining both is certainly a stretch both monetarily and with regards to roster construction. The Nuggets have both Harris and Barton playing shooting guard, where Malik Beasley needs minutes. He could play as a short small forward in a pinch but Barton, Michael Porter Jr, Torrey Craig and even Juancho will be looking for minutes there. Craig is more defensively viable but all have their strong points.

Juancho might have to play the three because power forward will have Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Vlatko Cancar and Jarred Vanderbilt aiming for minutes, to say nothing of the occasion Big Lineup that puts Jokic or Plumlee there. Coach Michael Malone has already said that there will be a competition at small forward to begin the year as a starter, something that was likely hastened by Will Barton’s current injury that is limiting him to non-contact minutes.

Face it, the Nuggets are stuffed at shooting guard, small forward and power forward - and even Plumlee may struggle to get minutes at backup center. Injuries can always clear the depth chart up but they are set up for an immediate trade, not just a midseason one. They could trade two or three players and still have a quality 10 man rotation. The problem remains pulling the trigger. How do you make a trade when Barton is injured, knowing that his backup may get time to start the season and you might be trading his backup? Sure, the Nuggets could trade for a defender in Andre Iguodala, but the package would have to be either Barton or Plumlee for salary purposes to go along with Beasley or Hernangomez as someone the Grizzlies would want to re-up as an RFA after the season. Is one year of an aging defender worth two players who already know how to play with Jokic? It took both Milsap and Plumlee at least half a season to figure out how to do that.

Is it worth it to try for a bird in the bush when you have so many in hand already? The Nuggets already know that Beasley can fill in admirably for either Harris or Barton. They know that the Juancho who won a gold medal with Spain this summer in the FIBA championships is worth more to them as a shooter and rebounder than most of the players he could get in return. Denver has a shot at a championship this year, if they can stay healthy and get their player mix right. Should they rock the boat just because they have too many players for the available rotation spots?

It’s hard to keep players happy when they are good enough to deserve minutes but can’t get into games. This is doubly hard when those players are about to hit the open market for their first big NBA paydays, or for potentially their last big contracts. Sometimes you have to trade players because they will not keep the team chemistry due to these concerns. It happened with Jusuf Nurkic, and Denver got the worse end of that deal once their hand was forced.

So is it better to make the deal and take the risk now, before any hands are forced or bad blood develops? The Nuggets pride themselves on culture now, and the early days of training camp are filled with the sort of confident swagger that a great young team should come with. The Nuggets have championship aspirations, and the swell of talent that can bring those to fruition. They have more than enough pieces to swing a trade tomorrow, or next week, or at the trade deadline.

But pulling the trigger is harder than talking about it. Pulling the trigger requires faith in the health of players who were not healthy last year. It is a leap of faith that what you have is enough, and the extra piece you need can be had for the right price. I’m not sure the Nuggets have that faith, or the belief that what they can get back is better than what they have.

The Denver Nuggets have too much depth. They have an overabundance of young players and they cannot keep all of them. The ones with the most value are also the ones who are about to have options on the market, whether open or restricted. Normally this would be a no-brainer.

But Denver’s young stockpile of talent keeps growing, while Tim Connelly and Arturas Karnisovas sit atop it like dragons on a hoard of gold, unwilling to part with any of the tremendous pieces. A hoard of treasure in the NBA has to be used, however, and it cannot simply be stored. These players are too good, and they deserve court time for their talents and their futures. That pressure will continue to mount.

It’s up to the Nuggets to decide whether they can handle that roster pressure - or whether something has to give. And they need to decide that before something breaks.

20 questions: How much does Paul Millsap have left in the tank?

2019-10-02T06:00:00-06:00

Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Entering his 14th NBA season and the final year of his contract, what does Denver’s veteran leader do next?

Last season, the key to Denver’s successful jump in the standings was the trio of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Paul Millsap.

While Jokic and Murray generally received the fanfare as the primary initiators and scorers offensively, Millsap held a major role as the glue holding many units together, including the starters. In the 1,259 regular minutes with all three on the court last year, the Nuggets cobbled together a +7.2 Net Rating. In the playoffs, that rose to a +10.8 Net Rating in 372 minutes. As soon as Millsap left the floor though, Denver dropped to a -10.0 Net Rating, even with Jokic and Murray on the floor. That’s a full 20 points per 100 possessions of difference, even with Denver’s two most important players on the floor.

There are a lot of numbers that relay Millsap’s underlying value to Denver’s team functionality, but none more so than Michael Malone’s unwavering confidence in the 34-year-old power forward as he steps on the floor for another year. Even with the addition of former Oklahoma City Thunder starting power forward Jerami Grant, Malone named four guaranteed starters as the team heads into a new season: Murray, Jokic, Gary Harris, and Millsap.

It’s no secret Millsap is getting older though. During the 2018-19 regular season, Millsap averaged 27.1 minutes per game, consistently sitting between 23 and 28 minutes from month to month, save for March when Millsap eclipsed 31 minutes per game. This was unsurprising, as the Nuggets lost backup power forward Trey Lyles in early 2019 and never replaced him with a traditional power forward backup. Often, Mason Plumlee would slide into that position when playing next to Jokic or Torrey Craig would shift from small forward to power forward instead. Still, the Nuggets wanted to make an effort to reduce Millsap’s overall regular season burden. The last time Millsap played under 30 minutes per game was a decade ago, and during the 2018-19 season, his Usage and Assist rates on offense dropped to similar thresholds when Millsap was first coming off the bench for the Utah Jazz.

It certainly feels like this trend of asking less and less from Millsap during the regular season will continue in an effort to preserve Millsap throughout the season. The Nuggets now have the luxury to treat Millsap’s minutes with the utmost sensitivity throughout the year. Jerami Grant is a solid player, ready to contribute wherever he can. Malone notably did not mention Grant when discussing candidates for the starting small forward position, meaning he plans for Grant to spend significant time at power forward instead. Is it possible that Malone’s plan is to rest Millsap more frequently throughout the year, effectively allowing Grant to start roughly 25% of games this year and play heavy minutes throughout? I’d expect that to be the plan.

Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

The magical cutoff for many quality players to stop starting games begins in their mid-thirties. Only 21 players that are at least 35 years old played NBA games last season. Among those players, only three guys averaged over 20 minutes per game: JJ Redick, Dwyane Wade, and Andre Iguodala. Wade retired last year, while Redick and Iguodala have made mention that this upcoming season could be their last. Millsap is approaching that point, and while he’s far closer to the above group of contributing players than he is to the other veterans who played last year, it’s no longer something that can be ignored for Denver’s future.

But the playoffs are a different animal entirely. The three listed vets above, especially Iguodala, have shown time and time again that they could contribute to a championship caliber team as long as the minutes were managed properly. The Golden State Warriors rarely asked for anything from Iguodala during the regular season the last several years, but every playoff season, Iguodala proved he was still was capable of high level play.

This is the year the Nuggets start focusing on playoff preparation from the outset, as Malone discussed at media day. I was surprised to not hear Millsap coming off the bench being discussed if the goal is to truly manage his workload. When a bench player is in and out of the lineup, only one spot of the rotation is disrupted regularly. When a starter regularly sits, his backup fills in as the starter AND the bench rotation is altered. Grant feels like the ideal player to slot into the starting lineup in this case, but it’s possible that Malone was unwilling to modify a starting group that works so well already.

Either way, Millsap remains a good player, a quality starter for a Nuggets team desperately in need of the stability he offers on both ends of the floor. During the playoffs, the Nuggets often turned to Millsap for offense in moments of need when Murray and Jokic were either sitting or needed a different course of action. At times, Millsap stepped up and filled that void well. At other times, Denver could have used more. The hope with the addition of Grant is that Denver both has an additional option at power forward and can spare Millsap some extra wear and tear of a long season. The NBA calendar is an exhausting one, and if Denver can help Millsap get to the playoffs at full health and effectiveness, that’s part of their window to advancing deeper in the playoffs than they did last year.

Time will tell this season, and for Millsap, the sage veteran of this Nuggets team, time is certainly ticking.