Denver Stiffs - Storystream: Scouting Reports for the 2018 NBA Draft

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft prospect: Mikal Bridges

2018-06-21T08:26:55-06:00

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Mikal Bridges is coming off a national championship and is ready to take the NBA by storm

Summary

With the Denver Nuggets in need of wing depth the name Bridges has come up quite a bit. Some may be talking about Miles Bridges, the combo forward from Michigan State who’s defensive prowess and athleticism make him a tantalizing prospect for Denver. However, most are likely dreaming of Mikal Bridges, the rangy sharp shooting and equally impressive defender from reigning national champion Villanova. Mikal fits a major hole in the Nuggets rotation and is entering the NBA ready to immediately make an impact on a team. Outside of Luka Doncic, there might not be a better prospect for the Nuggets in terms of fit and talent.

Measurables

Height: 6’ 7”

Weight: 209lbs

Wingspan: 7’ 0.5”

*Bridges did not attend the measurement portion of the draft combine

Statistics

Per Game Table
Season	School	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2015-16	Villanova	40	0	20.3	2.2	4.1	.521	1.6	2.2	.716	0.6	1.9	.299	1.5	1.9	.787	0.9	2.3	3.2	0.9	1.1	0.7	0.6	2.2	6.4
2016-17	Villanova	36	33	29.8	3.6	6.5	.549	2.3	3.4	.694	1.2	3.1	.393	1.4	1.6	.911	1.1	3.4	4.6	2.0	1.7	0.9	1.3	2.3	9.8
2017-18	Villanova	40	40	32.1	6.1	11.9	.514	3.5	5.9	.593	2.6	6.0	.435	2.9	3.4	.851	1.4	4.0	5.3	1.9	1.5	1.1	1.4	2.2	17.7
Career	Villanova	116	73	27.3	3.9	7.5	.525	2.5	3.8	.645	1.5	3.7	.400	1.9	2.3	.845	1.1	3.2	4.3	1.6	1.4	0.9	1.1	2.2	11.3

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 6/20/2018.

Strengths

Defensive ability: The number one selling point to Bridges game is on the defensive end. He’s developed into a supremely talented perimeter defender and its easy to tell why. Bridges long wingspan makes him a difficult player to get around and he’s got the quickness to go with it. He also possesses a high defensive IQ which allows him to be a superb defender off ball as well as on. Once again, when off ball his length and quickness comes into play. Bridges can close out with great quickness on a shooter and uses his length to generate turnovers in the passing lanes while also being a surprisingly solid help defender at the rim.

Shooting: Bridges has all the makes of an elite 3 and D player in the NBA. To go with his stifling defense comes some serious shooting chops. He started out as a sub 30% three point shooter at Villanova but by the end of last season Mikal was shooting over 43% from beyond the arc. His numbers from behind an NBA three point line are above league average as well (NBA or NCAA). There’s plenty of reason to believe the rise in shooting is real and not just an anomaly. Bridges has always been a fantastic free throw shooter, including hitting a 91% clip his sophomore season, and his efficiency has always been excellent. He has never shot below 50% from the field and has never had below a 63% true shooting percentage in his college career.

Weaknesses

Strength: It only takes one look at Mikal to figure out he’s still got some work to do in the weight room to become an elite NBA defender. With his quickness and length but slight frame and not overwhelming height the natural way to attack Bridges on defense is going to be to try to get him into the post and make him defend the paint 1 on 1. Luckily, there’s not a ton of post play from wings going on these days so his lack of strength should be able to be hid fairly well. However, you have to imagine he’s going to struggle stopping dribble penetration from the stronger wings in the game as well. For all his great length, at the end of the day a guy like LeBron James is just going to bully ball Bridges right to the rack. He will especially need to add strength if he’s going to play some small ball four.

Creation: Bridges is at his best as a catch and shoot guy, outside of that at most you want to ask him to pump fake, take one dribble and then shoot. If he has to create with the ball in his hands its where he runs into trouble. He doesn’t possess a very good handle and lacks creativity with the basketball. While he has a decent first step and can finish with both hands that’s about it in terms of his one on one ability. He also isn’t a great creator for others. Mikal hasn’t shown to be effective in the pick and roll as a ball handler so without great ability to penetrate and dish either it’s hard to find ways he will create open shots for his teammates.

Fit with Nuggets

Like Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges would be an excellent fit for the Nuggets because he addresses their two biggest needs on the wing: defense and depth. Mikal is a day one starter in the NBA and could immediately replace Wilson Chandler should he decide to opt out. If Chandler were to opt in then the Nuggets could use Mikal to replace some of Will Barton’s bench scoring if he leaves in the offseason and by this time next year, when Chandler is an unrestricted free agent, the Nuggets would be set with their starting SF of the future to grow with their core. Unfortunately the chances of Mikal being there at #14 when the Nuggets pick seem to be almost zero. It’s hard to imagine the Philadelphia 76ers, who could use Bridges skillset as well and also have the allure of being his hometown team, will pass on him if he is there at pick #10 and there’s also been rumors that the New York Knicks at #9 are high on Mikal. Of course there are those who think he should go even higher so if Denver is dead set on getting him, look for them to move up to somewhere between 5-8 to do it.

Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and say I think Mikal Bridges should go top five.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 19, 2018

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft Prospect: Shake Milton

2018-06-21T01:00:02-06:00

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

A look at a potential second-round pick

Measurables

Age: 21
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 205 lbs
Wingspan: 7’ 0.75”
Standing reach: 8’ 3.5”
Hand length: 8.75” x 9.50”
Max vertical: 33”
Bench Press reps: 2
Three-quarter sprint: 3.25

Stats

Totals Table
Season	School	Conf	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2015-16	SMU	AAC	30	23	980	113	237	.477	61	115	.530	52	122	.426	37	51	.725	9	80	89	82	24	8	46	43	315
2016-17	SMU	AAC	35	35	1239	152	348	.437	70	154	.455	82	194	.423	69	91	.758	15	129	144	159	44	11	63	54	455
2017-18	SMU	AAC	22	22	800	123	274	.449	67	145	.462	56	129	.434	94	111	.847	14	89	103	96	31	14	50	38	396
Career	SMU		87	80	3019	388	859	.452	198	414	.478	190	445	.427	200	253	.791	38	298	336	337	99	33	159	135	1166

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 6/20/2018.

Strengths

Shooting: Milton was an excellent off-ball shooter at SMU, making 43.9% of attempts from three and 44.9% from the field overall. He has nice shot mechanics and a pretty floater which helped contribute to his 18 ppg in the 2017-18 season.

Basketball IQ: As SMU’s starting point guard, Shake demonstrated capable ballhandling and playmaking skills but was a poised decision maker as well. He has great court vision and is unselfish. Milton plays well within himself and doesn’t try to do things he isn’t capable of, a very underrated quality in prospects.

Versatility: Milton’s measurables put him in a position to succeed on both ends of the floor. He is a decent on-ball defender who is capable of guarding multiple positions, and his length and creativity enable him to score in a variety of ways.

Weaknesses

Athleticism: Shake’s major weakness is his athleticism. He’s long, but he’s not explosive or particularly strong. This particularly limits his ability when driving to the rim as he is often pushed around by other players. Still, he finds ways to finish in the paint but overall he very much a below-the-rim player.

Uncertainty about translation to NBA: Milton belongs in the NBA, no doubt. But there are question marks about what exactly will translate right away. For example, his court vision and playmaking are satisfactory for a college player but would be considered average at best in the NBA. Defensively, he also leaves much to be desired off-ball.

Fit with the Denver Nuggets

Shake Milton provides a unique skillset that could certainly prove useful for Denver. His length and shooting project him to be a 3-and-D type of player, and it’s no secret the Nuggets lack that on the wing. But he also played point guard in college, and even with prospects like Monte Morris in the wings, backup point guard is still very much a need for Denver. One of the great things about Milton is that his size would enable him to fit either of those needs for the Nuggets off the bench. As such, he is a player Denver should certainly look at if he’s still on the board.

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft Prospect: Kevin Huerter

2018-06-20T15:21:08-06:00

Nicole Sweet-USA TODAY Sports

A knockdown shooter

Measurables

Age: 19

Height: 6’ 7.25” (w/ shoes)

Weight: 195lbs

Wingspan: 6’ 7.5”

Standing reach: 8’ 5.5”

Hand length: 8.25” x 8.50”

Max vertical: 38”

Bench Press reps: 9

Three-quarter sprint: 2.97

Stats

Per Game Table
Season	School	Conf	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	SOS
2016-17	Maryland	Big Ten	33	33	29.4	3.4	8.0	.420	1.4	2.7	.517	2.0	5.3	.371	0.6	0.8	.714	0.7	4.3	4.9	2.7	1.0	0.7	1.4	1.8	9.3	8.29
2017-18	Maryland	Big Ten	32	32	34.4	5.1	10.1	.503	2.8	4.6	.605	2.3	5.5	.417	2.3	3.1	.758	1.0	4.1	5.0	3.4	0.6	0.7	2.5	2.4	14.8	7.94
Career	Maryland		65	65	31.9	4.2	9.0	.466	2.1	3.6	.572	2.1	5.4	.394	1.5	2.0	.748	0.8	4.2	5.0	3.0	0.8	0.7	1.9	2.1	12.0	8.11

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 6/20/2018.

Strengths

Shooting: Huerter’s shooting ability is his money maker and his defining skill. In two years of Big Ten play he averaged 40 percent on all of his jumpers, just under 40 percent from deep and 57 percent from the field overall. The threat he poses off the ball is the first thing to come up when discussing Huerter, but he’s far more than just a superb spot up guy. The 19-year old found plenty of scoring opportunities on the ball thanks to his willingness and ability to knock down the shot off the bounce.

Handle: Huerter is indeed a shooter, and Huerter is indeed white, but be careful to avoid the trap of labeling him as a guy that’s confined by those limits we are so eager to place on players of that designation. Kevin can ball. With a handle that might surprised you and good height for a guard, Huerter was able to create for himself at the collegiate level beyond all those off ball screens designed to spring him free.

Instincts: Huerter is capable of both dribbling and passing with either hand, which results in an impressive playmaking ability that few shooters of his caliber posses. Huerter sees the floor well, and his basketball IQ is high, but perhaps the most encouraging part of his game is his decisiveness. Huerter doesn’t just see passing lanes, he seems them before they opens up, and is eager to thread the needle. Of course, that eagerness sharpens both ends of that sword.

Weaknesses

Turnovers: Huerter’s vision and ability to make tough passes results in a strong desire to do so. He can force the issue, not just as shooter, but a playmaker as well. He gets excited and struggles to adjust his own pace to that of the game at times. He averaged 2.5 turnovers a game in the 207-18 season as a secondary ball handler.

Strength and Length: Huerter is athletic, but that becomes an increasingly relative term the longer a player’s career goes. His dribble and height allowed him to create for himself in the Big Ten but the NBA is a different animal. The best wing players in this league are imposing physically—whether it be their strength, explosiveness, length, or a terrifying combination of all three—and Huerter doesn’t seem to check any of those boxes. He’s quick and he can jump, but you won’t find anyone labeling him as “powerful”. Can he compete physically with the big dogs? Will he be able to create for himself at the next level and/or finish inside? These are crucial questions in the process of determining his ceiling.

Defense: Huerter played as a guard in college, but in the modern game a player standing 6’7” will draw some assignments—and be forced into many switches—on true forwards. Given his lack of strength and length, there are real concerns about his defense despite solid footwork and strong instincts.

** Of Note: Huerter underwent surgery on his shooting hand (right) earlier in June and is expected to spend two months of basketball activities.

Fit with the Denver Nuggets

Offensively, Huerter projects as the type of player that Denver has use for. His ability to spot up and his work ethic off the ball are encouraging qualities for a potential complementary piece to Nikola Jokic. Huerter would do more than just benefit from Denver’s ball movement though, as his strong instincts and desire to move the basketball are a mouth watering pairing for a team that, at it’s best, plays one of the more beautiful offensive games in the league. But the Nuggets struggle mightily on the defensive end. And with their only two capable wing defenders being Wilson Chandler—aging, at times disengaged, and not in love with his role in the offense—and Torrey Craig—a 25 year old rookie who may not even be with the team next season—it’s hard to get too excited about a 6’7” player whose defense is chief among his weaknesses. His tendency to play outside of himself and turn the ball over isn’t too encouraging either. Huerter could help Denver, but he’s not a player that, if selected, is likely to evoke excitement from a fan base that is desperate to land a needle mover on draft night.

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft prospect: Kevin Knox

2018-06-20T10:26:27-06:00

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Kevin Knox has been flying up draft boards in recent weeks. Is it for good cause?

Summary

Kevin Knox is one of the youngest and most physically intriguing players in the entire draft class. Standing at 6’9 with a 6’11.75 wingspan at just 18 years old, Knox represents a blank canvas for most NBA teams, many believing they can mold the young gun into the forward prospect most teams need. Having played both forward spots in college, Knox showed some intriguing skills, some red flags, and oozed potential at Kentucky. Like many Kentucky prospects before him, it’s very likely that the forward was limited by the system and the personnel. Just look at Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker, and Jamal Murray, three players who showed much more in their rookie seasons at the NBA level than they did in their lone seasons at the college level.

But is Knox closer to one of those stars or an overrated young prospect like Malik Monk, Terrence Jones, or James Young? All six were drafted in the top 18 and both Knox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are likely to join them. How Knox develops, how much patience a team has in his growth, and Knox’s dedication to practicing the right things will determine whether he can be successful at the NBA level.

Measurables

Age: 18
Height: 6’9”
Weight: 213 lbs
Wingspan: 6’11.75”
Standing Reach: 9’0”

Stats

Player	Points/gm	Rebounds/gm	Assists/gm	Steals/gm	Blocks/gm	Field Goal %	Three-Point %	Free Throw %
Kevin Knox	15.6	5.4	1.4	0.8	0.3	44.5	34.1	77.4

Strengths

Scoring Instincts. Knox led Kentucky in scoring this season, averaging 15.6 points per game. He has a smooth-looking shot that makes it conceivable that he could become a reliable knock-down three-point shooter at the NBA level in time, despite his 34% three-point shooting numbers last season in college. He’s so tall that he is able to get his shot off against most defenders, even if that shot is often a pull-up mid-range jumper.

Young. Knox is the third youngest player in the draft so there is reason to be optimistic about his development curve. He won’t turn 19 years old until August so there’s even a chance that he could grow another inch or two and quickly fill out his already tall frame.

Mobility. A player this size with this much perimeter-level mobility is going to have upside. Knox looks like an NBA star talent. He’s graceful and smooth in the open court and has shown some one- and two-dribble moves that remind of Paul George. There’s certainly reason to believe Knox can grow into a nice off-the-dribble weapon on offense.

Weaknesses (Concerns)

Shot selection and efficiency: With Knox’s scoring ability comes a propensity to settle for B- and C- shot attempts. He really loved that mid-range game at Kentucky but at the NBA level, that’s a shot that he’ll have to use sparingly. He also struggles to get all the way to the rim for easy paint points and free throw attempts.

Rebounding: Knox uses his length well on the offensive end, especially with regards to his jumpshot, but he does not use it well on the boards. His 9.3 rebound percentage is low for a forward and aligns with some of the bigger criticisms about his game and how he avoides contact. He’ll need to toughen up quickly at the NBA level and learn how to embrace the physical aspects of the game.

Defense: He has the physical tools to become a solid all-around defender but he’ll enter the draft as an inconsistent and unproven defender. He’s at his best when he just uses his size to stay in front of his man, luring them into pull-up jump shots which he can contest with his long arms.

Fit with the Nuggets

I would see why the Denver Nuggets could be intrigued by Knox. There is a scenario in which he develops into the next Paul George if he can bulk up and improve his basketball IQ and shot selection. However, there is also a scenario in which Knox is a decent but below-average three-point shooter and never improves enough defensively to play small forward. Denver already has a handful of young prospects who fit the combo-foward profile and who have questions about their defense, including Trey Lyles, Juancho Hernangomez, and Tyler Lydon.

There’s also a question about how Knox would fit into Denver’s timeline. The best course of action for Knox is to enter the league with low expectations and room to slowly grow into a role in the rotation. Denver would either have to ty to shoehorn him into the small forward position or have him battle the three other stretch fours curently on the roster and Paul Millsap for playing time. Even if Knox wins out, that means Lydon, Juancho, or Lyles are probably never seeing the court.

Ultimately, Knox is intriguing but probably not the right guy for Denver.

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft prospect: Melvin Frazier

2018-06-19T08:04:38-06:00

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

If the Nuggets end up moving back in the draft, Frazier could be a real possibility

Summary

There’s no secret that the Denver Nuggets are in need of improved defense. With an all world talent at center like Nikola Jokic who is a savant on offense but lumbering and slow on defense, the need to stop penetration from the wings is paramount to improving Denver’s defensive profile. It’s also no secret that the Nuggets have been rumored to be looking to move off salary, potentially by using their current #14 pick in the draft. A team like the Atlanta Hawks may offer the best case scenario for Denver. With the Hawks owning three 1st round picks in this draft and more cap space than anyone, they make a natural fit to make a cap driven deal with Denver. If the Nuggets end up packaging, say, the 14th pick and Kenneth Faried for Atlanta’s 30th pick, then there’s a chance that rangey wing Melvin Frazier will be there, and he’s just what the doctor ordered.

Measurables

Age: 21

Height: 6’ 6” (w/ shoes)

Weight: 198lbs

Wingspan: 7’ 1.75”

Standing reach: 8’ 9”

Hand length: 9.5”

Stats

Strengths

Length: The number that immediately jumps off the page when considering Frazier is the wingspan. Despite being just 6’6”, there were only 15 players at the combine with longer wingspans than Fraziers at 7’ 1.75” and none of them play on the wing. Frazier’s ridiculous wingspan make up for being a little undersized at the three and he’s capable of playing both small forward and shooting guard. He also has ridiculous hands. At 9.5” in length, only 7 players at the combine had longer hands, all of them centers. While I joke about it a bit, players with abnormally large hands do tend to do well in the NBA (Jahlil Okafor not withstanding). For a wing who specializes in perimeter defense and also dabbles in ball handling, it’s easy to see why Frazier’s giant mitts give him an advantage.

Defense: If you’re picking Melvin Frazier, you’re not picking him for his offensive prowess. Frazier’s length gives him the ability to be an elite wing defender and he has all the other skills required. He has great lateral quickness which make him extremely difficult to get around off the dribble. He “gets skinny” going over screens and rarely loses good defensive position. He’s also unlikely to duck under a screen, preferring to fight through it. He has good anticipation of passing lanes so when he gets those giant hands in there he generates turnovers regularly.

Potential on offense: There’s no mistake, Frazier is definitely a work in progress on the offensive end, but he has shown some promise. He’s not a great shooter by any means but he made significant jumps in all of his shooting percentages last year at Tulane. He’s also shown he can be effective in the pick and roll as a ball handler. His length allows him to finish above the rim and his long strides get him to the basket quickly. While Frazier isn’t the greatest creator for others off a screen, he can get to the hoop and finish effectively. His physical gifts and upward trend shooting make one believe that he can certainly become a decent player on offense rather than being a negative.

Weaknesses

Shooting: For all the improvement Frazier has made shooting the rock, he still has a long way to go. His shot can be downright ugly at times and has shades of Emmanuel Mudiay (I can feel Nuggets Nation’s collective cringe) with him releasing the ball on the way down from his jump. Frazier is a sub 30% shooter from the NBA three point line so one has to wonder if he’ll ever be able to effectively space the floor at the NBA level. The other discouraging part of his shooting is Frazier hasn’t developed a strong mid range game to compensate. While he is a solid finisher at the rim his pull up game leaves a lot to be desired as he almost changes his shooting motion on dribble pull ups by cutting off his follow through. The gameplan on Frazier in the NBA will clearly be to pack the paint and force him to take jumpers.

Ball security: Frazier profiles as a ²⁄₃ combo in the NBA which means he’ll do at least some of the playmaking on offense (or at least you’d like him to) but creating for others isn’t his strong suit. He’s never been a big assist guy (though like everything that improved last season) and he turns the ball over at an alarmingly high rate for a wing at just under three turnovers a game. His handle isn’t the fastest which can cause him to lose the ball in traffic but he also appears to not be able to keep his hands up with his brain, sometimes committing silly turnovers as a result of losing his handle or making a poor decision.

Fit with the Nuggets

Frazier would be an outstanding get late in the 1st round if the Nuggets trade back. He’s definitely raw and likely would spend his rookie season mostly in the G-League, but if he can continue his upward trend on offense then he profiles as a very solid rotation player if not a fifth starter. He could potentially be an Andre Roberson type with his game changing ability on D and if his trends are to be believed, then there’s reason to think he won’t be as much of an offensive liability as Roberson. He would provide the Nuggets with much needed perimeter defense and wing depth with the hope that one day he develops into a 3 and D piece of a championship roster. He certainly has the potential and physical tools to become that so focusing on proper development in the NBA will be crucial to make Frazier as effective as possible.

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft Prospect: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2018-06-18T10:54:36-06:00

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Nuggets have a long term need for backcourt defense and facilitation. Could this Kentucky guard be the missing piece?

Summary

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a 6’6 point guard from Kentucky about the size of Will Barton. Meaning, he’s very skinny. Playing with Kevin Knox, Hamidou Diallo, and the rest of the Kentucky roster, SGA didn’t start immediately. Early in the season though, it became evident that not only was he starter caliber, he was Kentucky’s best player. He wasn’t the leading scorer, but he was close, and it truly became his team as Kentucky entered the SEC and NCAA tournaments.

In the pros, it’s unclear what SGA’s best role will be. Measuring in at 180 pounds at the combine (3rd lightest) and at just 3% body fat (lowest), it’s very possible the point guard doesn’t have the frame to become a legitimate starter. On the other hand, his 6’6 height in shoes and 7’0 wingspan were the best marks among point guards. Most players with his profile struggle to shoot from the perimeter, but SGA shot 40.4% from 3 (albeit on limited attempts) and 81.7% from the free throw line.

It’s clear that Gilgeous-Alexander is unique. How he fits into the Nuggets rotation is also clear. Does he fit the most important need for Denver at 14th overall though? Let’s find out.

Measurables

Age: 19

Height: 6’6”

Weight: 180 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0”

Standing Reach: 8’8”

Stats

Player	Points/gm	Rebounds/gm	Assists/gm	Steals/gm	Blocks/gm	Field Goal %	Three-Point %	Free Throw %
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	14.4	4.4	5.1	1.6	0.5	48.5	40.4	81.7

Strengths

Slashing with finesse. As far as slashers in this draft, there aren’t many that are more talented than Gilgeous-Alexander. The thin point guard has some of the best touch approaching the basket in the entire draft, which is the skill that raises his floor as a prospect up to backup point guard levels. In the pick and roll, off the catch, and in isolation, SGA has excellent instincts and quick, fluid movements that allow him to slither past his defender or between two different ones.

In the first clip, he shows some ability as an off ball slasher. He’s not out of control, but rather getting quickly to a spot where he’s comfortable using the glass. In the second clip, it’s easy to see him playing a two-man game with Nikola Jokic, toying with his defender trying to create space before Jokic pitches him the ball.

SGA uses the glass well, always keeping his eyes up and looking for the best way to attack the basket. He can use either hand going to the rim, though he’s more comfortable going to his left and finishing back with his right. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something teams can scout.

Spot Up Shooting Potential. Again, 40.4% from 3 and 81.7% from the line are good indicators for shooting potential. Nobody will confuse SGA with an elite outside shooter, as his attempts from the perimeter are way too low to draw the defense out too far. That being said, there are tools to work with here, and a good shooting coach should be able to turn SGA into a solid three-point shooter on moderate volume, if only to open up the rest of his game. If the Nuggets believe in their shooting coaches, then the SGA of the future may end up being the best point guard in the draft.

Passing Promise. SGA makes some great passes because of his ability to see over the defense. At 6’6 with a 7’0 wingspan, his vision becomes unimpeded when guarded by someone 6’3 or shorter, and when he’s driving to the rim, his long arms reach around defenders to make passes. He hits shooters in this opposite corner, makes simple passes to bigs popping at the three point line, hits the post reasonably well. He needs help in the pick and roll, but Kentucky wasn’t a great pick and roll team anyway. It will take time to develop these skills, but he has a foundation.

Defensive Potential. The best part about SGA’s defense is his length. He can gamble for steals, be a pest against guards, and be a threat on the defensive boards to grab the ball and attack in transition. He’s young and inexperienced, so it will take time for him to learn the ins and outs of team defense. He may not be a great player to guard big players on switches because of his frame, but given some physical development, maybe that changes. If he can defend at the point of attack though, that’s important.

Athleticism and Profile. Not all NBA guards can do this. Gilgeous-Alexander uses his 7’0 wingspan to reach around his defender to score on the move to the rim.It’s a rare play to make at the college level, and SGA does it frequently.

It’s encouraging that SGA is so spatially aware. He doesn’t get blocked often, understanding where his defender, the nearest rim protector, and the rim itself are. He’s coordinated and lengthy enough to get off awkward finishes, and when things break down, it’s nice to have somebody who can get to the rim.

This is a lot like Will Barton on the Nuggets today. He was the designated isolation guy when things went bad, especially in the second unit. Barton’s ability to pull-up and shoot likely separates him from SGA now, but the coordination and passing ability SGA already possesses will help him improve his decisions as he gets experience.

The athleticism and wingspan though? That’s unquestionable.

Weaknesses (Concerns)

Physicality. Again, 3% body fat and 180 pounds. Not a lot of room for growth. This manifests itself in struggling to finish through contact as well as being physical on the defensive end. He rebounds well for his size, but it could be even better. Overall, SGA is a finesse finisher on offense, and that may help him get by as a backup. In order to be a starter though, this is his most important phase of his game to improve.

Shooting Polish. The second most important improvement he can make is shooting off the dribble. His form and fluidity pulling up from the perimeter is poor, which will definitely lower his ceiling if he can’t fix it. I don’t ever expect SGA to be an above average pull-up shooter, but becoming more of a threat when the defense goes under ball screens is essential to providing positive impact. Ricky Rubio learned to shoot when the defense gives him room, but it took time. If SGA can’t make a pull-up jumper, it neutralizes his value.

Decision Making. It’s hard to blame him entirely, but SGA averaged 2.7 turnovers per game, compared to just 5.1 assists. That ratio isn’t great for an NBA level point guard, but it’s understandable given his situation on Kentucky. Still, he made ill-advised passes, jump-passed when a jump-stop would be advisable, and was sometimes just inaccurate. He’s a young point guard, so it’s not surprising that he’s raw, but again, this could prevent him from making an immediate impact for whatever team he plays for.

Fit with the Nuggets

On offense, I see him pairing well with Nikola Jokic. The center would make up for a number of SGA’s deficiencies, playing a two-man game and an off-ball role in combination. He also makes sense next to Jamal Murray and/or Gary Harris, as a player who can guard point guards, facilitate for the other guard, and take some pressure off that guy while handling the basketball.

However, the problem with drafting SGA is expecting him to make a positive impact immediately. The player he will be in the future likely isn’t the one he will be over the first couple of seasons of his career. De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings faced many of the same problems last year with an underdeveloped body and shot. For a Nuggets team looking for stability and a playoff run, relying on a rookie point guard to make a positive and steady impact is dangerous. SGA would be a long term play, that’s for sure.

Still, if the Nuggets aren’t as worried about immediate return, the player SGA can be is exactly what Denver needs long term. A backup guard who can play 25 minutes per game, pushing one of Murray or Harris to an off-ball role whenever he enters, that can facilitate, defend, and get easy buckets off drives to the rim. When Jokic goes to the bench, Denver needs a player they can count on long term to keep the offensive rating high. SGA could definitely be that guy...but he needs time.

There are players I would draft prior to Shai GIlgeous-Alexander in this year’s draft, but if those players are off the board, and the Nuggets want to take a chance on a guy who could be around long term, then nobody can fault them here. I mocked SGA to the Nuggets in my first mock draft this year for that reason. It makes sense, and in three days time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the slight, yet lengthy point guard in a Nuggets uniform after Thursday’s draft.

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft Prospect: Troy Brown

2018-06-18T09:18:08-06:00

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Denver is looking for a three-and-D wing. Troy Brown would like to submit his resume for at least one of those skills.

The 2018 NBA Draft is close upon us, now, and the Denver Nuggets still have nearly unlimited options with regard to where they draft. Troy Brown, the Oregon wing who has a lot of draft helium with selection time just a few days away, could fall anywhere from the back end of the first to the range Denver is in now. His college career was just one year, but Brown showed several interesting NBA skills and is almost assuredly a first round pick. His upside as a wing defender who might be able to expand his game out past the three point line will make some team overlook his age in favor of his expected growth curve.

Denver likes growth potential more than most draft attributes, so expect Troy Brown to be on their radar too.

Measureables

Age: 18

Height with shoes: 6’6.75”

Weight: 210 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.25”

Standing reach: 6’9”

Stats

Strengths

Multi-position defender: Brown is proud of his ability to defend three positions with his size and length, and has said he takes a special pride in stopping point guards as they are almost all smaller and quicker than he is. He uses his body well and doesn’t get off-balance too often, preferring to move rather than reach. He may not be able to stay with the burners that play point guard in the NBA but he can slide down to guard more stretch fours. Brown’s defensive potential is what will make him a first round pick.

Passing ability: Brown is proud of his passing, which shows up in behind-the-back dishes, bounce passes through traffic and after spin moves in the paint. He will not be a point guard at the next level but having a wing who can be trusted as a secondary ball-handler is useful whether they are coming off the bench or playing with Nikola Jokic. He averaged 3.2 assists and quite a few deft and court-aware passes. Jamal Murray averaged 2.2 as a freshman and Gary Harris had 2.7 as a sophomore for reference.

His assist-to-turnover rate was not great (though in line with both Murray and Harris) but by his own admission he was trying to do too much both from a shooting and passing perspective and not properly valuing the ball, as Michael Malone would say. His road numbers in those departments were also poor - as one would expect from a young player shouldering a lot of responsibility. The passing ability is there regardless.

Awareness: As I said, this shows up in his passes, which sometimes get him into trouble because not everyone is as aware. It shows up in his thoughtfulness about his own game, and his desire to hunt steals. Brown relies on his awareness to get to the correct spot on the floor and supplement his athleticism, which is fairly remarkable for an 18 year old freshman. It allows him to be a good team defender as well as an individual one. I’m not always in favor of taking extremely young players, but if Denver decides to do that again with Brown at least they’re getting a smart, heady player.

Weaknesses

Three point stroke: His distance shot isn’t broken, but he does have a long windup and some aiming issues (and a 29.1% success rate on 110 shots). His free throw stroke (74.3%) provides anticipation that he can clean up those distance woes, as free throw percentage is a better college indication of shot potential than the actual three-point percentage, but it’s still a concern.

Lack of elite athleticism: He is not an elite athlete. He is a good athlete, and an NBA-caliber athlete, but he does not bound down the court like a gazelle or jump out of the gym. His measurements similarly are NBA-caliber but not elite. For a player who relies on his ability to defend three positions and drive the lane to pass, it’s a concern that he might not be able to do those things as easily against other NBA athletes. If he can only defend one position and stand on the perimeter to pass and shoot, his value plummets.

Fit with the Denver Nuggets

As a player who likens his game to that of Andre Iguodala there’s a lot to like. His defensive chops are legitimate and his three point shooting woes probably over-rated, but a downside comp for Brown would be something like Corey Brewer with better basketball IQ. His upside isn’t Iguodala as he lacks Andre’s elite athletic gifts, but even a lesser version of that is still incredibly valuable to Denver. Brown’s ability to pass and handle the ball, run in transition, defend multiple positions and in time learn a three point stroke would make his prime contributions one of the best possible fits for Denver.

Unfortunately it will likely take until his second contract for him to hit that point in all facets. He is one of the youngest players in this draft and would be a work-in-progress for multiple years. His ability to be a secondary ball-handler and to defend most bench positions would get him early playing time though, especially because his free throw ability is there. He has Andre Roberson’s size but not his critical shot deficiencies. Maybe he tops out as Evan Turner offensively, but if he can come anywhere close to being Roberson-with-a-shot then that’s someone the Nuggets could absolutely use.

Denver Stiffs NBA Draft Prospect: Džanan Musa

2018-06-16T12:32:37-06:00

Džanan Musa’s Twitter page, @DzananM13

Will a young, aggressive, European wing scorer be what the Nuggets need next season and beyond?

Summary

Džanan Musa is an international big wing player who recently worked out for the Nuggets. At 6’8, Musa has the size profile, and with his scoring instincts, it’s easy to see him make an impact on the offensive end of the floor. That being said, as promising as his offense is, his defense is just as concerning. He also has had notable attitude issues, especially for a Nuggets team that studied to reign in another Bosnian - Jusuf Nurkic. Musa could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the middle of the second round, but if Denver’s primary goal is to add wing defenders, he’s probably not the guy.

Measurables

Age: 19

Height: 6’8”

Weight: 190 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0”

Standing Reach: Unknown

Stats

Player	Points/gm	Rebounds/gm	Assists/gm	Steals/gm	Blocks/gm	Field Goal %	Three-Point %	Free Throw %
Džanan Musa	12.4	3.5	1.9	1.0	0.2	47.0	31.3	80.4

Strengths

Aggressive Scorer. Nobody will ever have to tell Džanan Musa to stop shooting. This European wing butters his bread by taking shots at a high rate, and it shows in the numbers. Musa generated a nearly 25% usage rate during his final season for Cedevita, one of the highest rates on the team at just 18 and 19.

(h/t kovac films)

It’s very clear that Musa’s ball handling helps him get to the rim, and he’s worked at that in his time as a pro. The biggest factor though? Musa just wants to score on everybody. Like Jamal Murray, Musa is always aggressive, searching for his own shot, within or outside the flow of the offense. He’s still a good scorer though. His true shooting percentage of 60.3% during all competitions this year reflects that. It shows up when attacking the rim with nice touch. It shows up at the free throw line, where his free throw percentage of 80.4% reflects natural shooting talent and hard work together.

A lot of factors reflect that he could be a solid scorer at the NBA level, and not just another Mario Hezonja.

Outside Shooting Potential. What separates Musa from some of the prospects in the states is the type of three-point shots he takes for Cedevita. Here are three separate images of shots he attempted in a professional competition.

kovac films

Now, when I get to the weaknesses section and “shot selection” please refer back to these pictures. What interests me about these three pictures: he’s clearly allowed to take these shots by the system. The other four players on the floor seem to trust and understand that this is within his range and scope of role for the team. If he were to play in the NBA, it could go one of three ways: he could continue taking poor shots and either learn to make them more frequently, he could take bad shots...and they would just be bad shots, or he scales it back and takes better shots in a system that generates good looks for him.

He shot just 31.3% on threes this year, and it’s no wonder given the shot selection. The high free throw percentage and quality form indicate that regression toward a higher percentage may come when he plays in the NBA. It might not, but I’d be willing to bet on him being a 35% shooter in the NBA or better. If he’s much better, then he becomes much more valuable.

Size profile. At 6’8, Musa is the prototypical size of a scoring wing that can shoot over smaller players and take advantage of mismatches. He is just 190 pounds, but the weight training in the states is simply different, and Musa may put on as much as 30 pounds playing in the NBA. Initially, it will be easy to score on him and defend him at stick figure size, but as he develops, that will likely change. It’s easy to see Musa learning to score and pass at a high level at his size, given the tools he already has in his tool box.

Weaknesses (Concerns)

Defense. Again, at 190 pounds, and given the film he’s already put out there as a defender, he’s going to struggle in the NBA for a couple of years defending the Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and James Harden types. Heck, he profiles as a guy that Wilson Chandler would take to the post and put up an easy 20 points. That’s a major concern for his long term profile, and he will have to make major strides to become an average defender, and borderline impossible strides to become a good one.

Shot Selection. See above.

Attitude Concerns. In a video posted by the Indy Star, Musa talks about how Jusuf Nurkic has been a mentor to him throughout the growing up process, telling him how to approach draft workouts, talk to teams, and be a professional. Both are Bosnian, so it makes sense that Musa would take advice from someone of his country that also made the NBA.

It’s also dangerous for Denver.

I can’t imagine Nurkic had many glowing things to say about the Nuggets organization to Musa. Having that relationship start off on the wrong foot could be an issue. This is something the Nuggets surely discussed with him in their draft workout of him last week, so they will know better than anybody whether he will be okay in a Nuggets uniform. Still, it’s an important question to ask.

Furthermore, like Nurkic, Musa also happens to idolize Kobe Bryant, which could be an issue if Musa struggles to fit into the culture Denver has established. If someone thinks they’re the best player on the team and should be taking the shots, it’s fine, as long as they make the most of their opportunities and don’t cause chemistry issues. It will be interesting to see, if the Nuggets end up taking Musa, how he fits within the dynamic of the team around an already established young core.

Fit with the Nuggets

Musa is a long term play for the Nuggets. He’s not going to be an immediate contributor, as he has a lot of work to do in the weight room, some shot selection issues to iron out, and overall development needed. If Denver had a second first round pick, I’d actually recommend taking a chance on him. Denver needs a small forward of the future, and Musa would have a better chance than anyone on the current roster to be that guy.

That being said, the Cedevita product just doesn’t fit the profile of what Denver needs right now - a player willing to fit in and do the little things rather than wanting to do the big things immediately. Denver needs a guy willing to defend, willing to pass up an okay shot and move it for a great shot. They also need a guy with the ability to contribute now, and if Musa can’t make the offense better immediately, and he doesn’t make the defense better at all, then it’s tough to use the 14th pick on him.

If Denver traded down and acquired another selection, maybe he’s a player to take a chance on. At this point though, I don’t see Denver considering him at the 14th pick, and I doubt he lasts until 43rd.